Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

Im curious to see where manipulation of prediction markets nets out given their increasing prominence as a source of truth. 

For elections—where the odds could have a non zero impact on votes similar to polls—you could see a significant % of campaign advertising spend find its way into just betting on their candidate winning: becoming a literal war of attrition. 

The above line of thinking only makes sense if the perception of current odds has a meaningful impact on voter decision making, but that doesn’t seem that far from reality.

But why wouldn’t the markets bring it back to their “correct” (based on public information/analyses) levels?

Not sure what volume these markets are doing now so could be a factor of a nation state on one side

21. hacking.
previously @spire, intern Nethermind, epns.io

Yeah there should be a constant pressure to arb any mispricings so it doesn’t come for free and would take a lot of capital. 

But while these markets are still relatively nascent it’s at least a little possible.