$PURP

I feel like every signal on the political side is saying strikes likely on Iran

However the most important indicator of the likelihood of this would be oil prices spiking, which we aren't seeing, nor are we seeing a run on stocks that would imply regime change likely imo 

Very mixed signals, slightly more bearish on American airstrikes in Iran today than I was yesterday though

Energy prices are making me doubtful this occurs.

Go Memphis Grizzlies | Ave Caesar | Accidentally Defi | Building @etherguild

That's where im at currently 

Oil prices are super reactionary to conflict in that region and im not seeing it 

Trump being an unpredictable moron and netanyahu facing prosecution if he stops fighting though are massive wildcards

Im like 60/40 we do it currently

I think it’s overpriced on Polymarket in general. I think Trump maybe TACO.. people are selling bonds too. Idk if he wants yields to go that high if we have to fund an operation.

Completely agree. The longer nothing happens, the more likely nothing happens.

I do think its telling though that the trump influencers have been obviously told to shill Iran strikes to their followers