predictionmkts
a channel to share and discuss prediction markets
@kazani
How someone manipulated weather in Paris to win a bet
An individual exploited Polymarket's Paris daily high temperature markets by briefly heating the sensor with a hair dryer to trigger long-shot payouts totaling ~$34k
The sensor's unguarded location allowed a quick temperature spike that registered as the daily max before normalizing, as shown in Polymarket charts with sharp late probability shifts for higher ranges like 22°C
https://x.com/aaronjmars/status/2047017251270734309
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@kazani
How Building a Weather Polymarket Bot with OpenClaw and turn 100$ → 8000$ (Step-by-Step Guide)
https://x.com/LunarResearcher/status/2025131164348932533
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@aaronjmars.eth
the top 5 contracts on Polygon are:
1. Polymarket (55%)
2. Polymarket (10%)
3. Polymarket MEV bot (5%)
4. Polymarket (4%)
5. Quickswap (1%)
this is wild, app seazon
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@aaronjmars.eth
People simply won't keep playing in markets where there is so much asymmetric information. Unless of course they are incentivised to do so. Short term great. Long term hmm. Call me a sceptic.
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@aaronjmars.eth
tokens ≠ prediction markets
i agree that permisionless PMs will be big, but a 'decentralized polymarket' will never work, bc it assumes people wants to bet on:
> events with no liquidity
> events with insider trading
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@aaronjmars.eth
"I believe prediction markets eventually lead to manufacturing reality itself rather than just forecasting it. This is admittedly speculative, but it's already happening on smaller scales."
cool piece
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@aaronjmars.eth
A Telegram bot that monitors Polymarket and sends real-time notifications when new prediction markets are created.
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@aaronjmars.eth
wtf are you guys talking about
weather derivatives are an existing $25B market
electricity derivatives are a $1.2B market
there is literally no reason to use prediction markets for that, worse liquidity, worse mechanics, you have a crazy spread for $1k, ...
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@aaronjmars.eth
the energy around predictions markets is crazy
some ideas id like to see around prediction markets 👇
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@codyb.eth
Update to prophecy.market.
Scratchers added!!
Scratch to win a prediction up to 10x entry.
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@aaronjmars.eth
we have tons of prediction markets bots, trading terminal etc, assuming people are using prediction markets the same way they've aped on memecoins
who's trying a different approach?
my feeling:
- algo based recommendation : i connect my X account, my letterboxd & my spotify
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