predictionmkts
a channel to share and discuss prediction markets
@quotient
$331M of Polymarket's geopolitics volume may not survive the CFTC's proposed rule.
We read all 879 active geopolitics markets holding $633M in cumulative volume and mapped them against the proposed rule to see what would be affected.
The rule's core target makes sense. No contracts that pay out on terrorism, assassination, or war.
But what about a ceasefire? A leader leaving office? Control of territory or airspace?
These markets can pay on diplomacy, status, or political exit, but under a broad reading they also fall inside the rule if violence is one potential path to resolution. And they're where the money sits.
$331M of the $633M would be hard to list.
If you trade or build these markets, this rule decides what a US-registered venue can list. The public comment period closes July 27.
Full report and how to comment: https://www.quotient.social/reports/cftc-prediction-markets
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@fourvork
I love the public sentiment against the predication markets.
never thought I would say this but fair play by redditors
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1ggq905/hi_reddit_my_name_is_tarek_mansour_and_im_the/
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@kazani
How someone manipulated weather in Paris to win a bet
An individual exploited Polymarket's Paris daily high temperature markets by briefly heating the sensor with a hair dryer to trigger long-shot payouts totaling ~$34k
The sensor's unguarded location allowed a quick temperature spike that registered as the daily max before normalizing, as shown in Polymarket charts with sharp late probability shifts for higher ranges like 22°C
https://x.com/aaronjmars/status/2047017251270734309
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@overtimemarkets
Quick reminder: Trade on the Speed Markets Farcaster mini app and we'll give you 1 $OVER for every dollar of volume you generate.
These are really straightforward UP/DOWN BTC and ETH prediction markets that resolve in 1-60 minutes.
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@overtimemarkets
We are running a volume-based giveaway where every $1 of Speed Markets trading volume you generate through our Farcaster mini apps (both the dedicated Speed Markets app and Overtime) earns you 1 $OVER in Free Bets.
The more you trade, the more $OVER you accumulate.
The campaign runs from March 20th until April 3rd, 2026.
Ready, Set, Start Trading 👇
https://www.overtimemarkets.xyz/speed-markets
Giveaway details and rules:
https://www.overtimemarkets.xyz/promotions/speed-markets-miniapp-giveaway
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@overtimemarkets
🎁 The $10 Speed Markets Airdrop 🎁
Ever tried 1-minute UP or DOWN BTC/ETH prediction markets? ⏱️📈📉
Well, our new mini app has got 'em! And everyone is welcome to try them for free.
If you want to receive our Speed Markets Airdrop:
1. Search for Speed Markets in mini apps
2. Add the mini app & enable notifications
That's it. We'll drop $5 into your account via notifications when you do!
Use this $5 to trade by selecting ETH or BTC; UP or DOWN; select Trade Duration (anything between 1 and 60 minutes), and that's it. 🚀
💸 Bonus: If you use the airdrop to place a trade, we'll drop ANOTHER $5 into your account! 💸
There's literally nothing to lose.
Here's a quick video to walk you through your first Speed Markets trade 🎥👇
Note: We will use the Neynar score to prioritize distributing airdrops to real users and prevent disingenuous attempts to secure it.
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@quotient
Quotient is resilient to disinformation https://x.com/quotienthq/status/2026832213837324620?s=46
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@kazani
How Building a Weather Polymarket Bot with OpenClaw and turn 100$ → 8000$ (Step-by-Step Guide)
https://x.com/LunarResearcher/status/2025131164348932533
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@aaronjmars.eth
the top 5 contracts on Polygon are:
1. Polymarket (55%)
2. Polymarket (10%)
3. Polymarket MEV bot (5%)
4. Polymarket (4%)
5. Quickswap (1%)
this is wild, app seazon
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@aaronjmars.eth
People simply won't keep playing in markets where there is so much asymmetric information. Unless of course they are incentivised to do so. Short term great. Long term hmm. Call me a sceptic.
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@aaronjmars.eth
tokens ≠ prediction markets
i agree that permisionless PMs will be big, but a 'decentralized polymarket' will never work, bc it assumes people wants to bet on:
> events with no liquidity
> events with insider trading
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