we have tons of prediction markets bots, trading terminal etc, assuming people are using prediction markets the same way they've aped on memecoins who's trying a different approach? my feeling: - algo based recommendation : i connect my X account, my letterboxd & my spotify

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Lue Elizondo, the leading UFO/UAP whistleblower, announced a new book with "previously undisclosed evidence" regarding non-human intelligence (NHI) https://x.com/LueElizondo/status/2009062100765958538?s=20 https://x.com/InterstellarUAP/status/2009402633455587348?s=20

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@pubhouse.base.eth gaining traction/friction here with the s/o from @faircaster still have this up for the year. should be an easy bid imo.

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This anon wallet opened yesterday and bought $41,000 of Yes positions on every Iran strike & regime change wallet it could Is this guy on an aircraft carrier somewhere? I don't think so. I think it's a non-crypto native Iran expert who recently learned about @polymarket aghast at how mispriced these markets are, considering recent events Protests are rising. Nation-wide internet blackout. The media is failing you

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Reality farming aint much but it's honest work https://poly.market/dFRER7n

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Why do we keep labeling people who bet that the Trump administration will do literally what they said they'll do as insiders, in situations where they face no real constraints, weeks after they did exactly what they said they'd do? https://x.com/QuiverQuant/status/2008672080674587112?s=20 I think crypto twitter will get absolutely cooked when real experts start betting in these markets at scale

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Donroe Doctrine strategy up ~22% since here, as protests in Iran continue, primarily driven by reports that Israel and Iran both suspect each other of planning a strike (Israel thinks Iran might strike Israel as a distraction, Iran thinks Israel might capitalize on the regime's vulnerability), as well as a large Yes buy from a fresh Polymarket while speculated to be an insider. Some interesting things going on with Quotient are delaying the more detailed write-up I planned, so it will likely take a different form. One thing I will say is that the current President, Pezeshekian, was a proponent of the JCPOA. He was a contributor to a report by the Iranian parliament evaluating the deal, before being booted out for taking too positive of a view of the deal's benefits. Hardliners argued that the deal was not binding, that the U.S. would maintain the legal structure for re-implementing sanctions, and that U.S. assurances that the political costs of reneging on the agreement would ensure that future administrations did not renege on it. They were right about everything, and now, Pezeshkian, who the regime is putting out as a friendly face to placate the protestors, is saying that he is "out of ideas" about what to do with the economy, or the U.S. The regime has three options: - Give up everything; nuclear program, ballistic missiles, support for proxies, ruled directly or indirectly by Mr. Rubio - Attempt to re-establish deterrence - Make a deal to buy time that they know the U.S. and Israel will not abide by Hegseth loves to talk about lethality, and how ready for war the U.S. after 25 years of GWOT, but the formative experience for the people leading the regime was the Iran / Iraq War, in which Iran overcame worse odds, chemical weapons, and persevered in confrontation with the U.S. and Iraq. I hope there's not large scale conflict, but unless Iran can find a way to grow it's economy without integration into the global financial system (now without Venezuela, a critical lifeline, and soon likely without Russia, another key lifeline), it's difficult to see how there is not some level of kinetic conflict between Iran/Israel/the U.S. in the next three months.

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A lot has changed in the last year and a half https://jchanolm.substack.com/p/expanding-the-value-of-prediction

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Vibes https://youtube.com/shorts/QiIsqbrAGR8?si=Th9JNZhlFwAA4FsM

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interesting https://x.com/gemchange_ltd/status/2007822720268988819?s=20

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The Donroe Doctrine Starter Pack, still on sale. - U.S. will likely strike Iran unless the protests are resolved forthwith, which doesn't seem likely - The bulk of Israel's intelligence and diplomatic efforts are put into convincing the U.S. to let them strike Iran or help them strike Iran, even when Iran is not on the ropes - Donald is serious about annexing Greenland - Incredibly, Hunter Biden is the only figure in the Democratic party capable of matching the energy and dynamism of MAGA This is a presentation of claims about the future state of the world, not financial advice @quotient wants more Farcaster users to become prediction markets traders, so I'm starting a newsletter on @paragraph (Anarchy) to share insights on geopolitics-related prediction markets First post tomorrow.

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the game has been over for an hour not going to find any buyers 😂

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there’s nothing more painstakingly exhilarating than getting a large fill on a “no wind/windy” on a game in a dome

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bear down

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