predictionmkts
a channel to share and discuss prediction markets
@aaronjmars.eth
i've read this paper that analyze the accuracy of prediction markets, the interesting bits about manipulation:
- "Prediction markets risk constructing rather than reflecting political realities; prices that are presumed to reveal collective wisdom may actually amplify
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@mleejr
polymarket app beta is now live for anyone in usa
if you use code POLYUSA when signing up you’ll get a free $10
good luck have fun predictooors
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@aaronjmars.eth
2026: Coinbase, Robinhood, and every fintech tears each other apart in the prediction market race to zero.
We're building the EV+ alternative - higher leverage, markets that actually matter @hyperstiti0ns
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@jdotfinn
I think social prediction markets on platforms like farcaster can still work, where the outcomes are not so contentious
Fun stuff more like what @perl used to do.
Still gambling in many ways, but in a way that builds some net social benefit by incentivizing good network behaviors, like a group of people posting bangers to see which one has the most likes or something to that effect
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