MLB
Discussion about Major League Baseball
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@kagami
one of my favorite trades of the off-season so far—mariners get jose ferrer for harry ford (top 50 prospect) and isaac lyon
by the numbers, the mariners trading a top catching prospect for a left handed reliever with a 4.36 career era looks terrible
but this is actually an incredible trade for the mariners, especially for future playoffs runs
a few reason why ferrer is likely a steal for the mariners
1. an elite arsenal that limits fly balls
ferrer is in the 99th percentile for grounders, 94th percentile for fastball velocity, 95th percentile for walk rate, and 93rd percentile in barrel rate
that’s great in the regular season, but even better in the playoffs when homers play a big part in winning games
2. cost controlled through 2029
elite left handed relievers get paid a premium on the free agent market. josh hader makes about $19m/year, aroldis chapman made about $13m in 2025, and matt strahm clocked in about $7.5m
ferrer is a pre-arb players, so he’s penciled in for under $1m this year and may not top $7.5m in total earnings through 2029. as a mid market team, that’s a huge cost savings that could be applied to free agents or mid-season acquisitions (like suarez/naylor)
3. elite swing and miss secondaries
while ferrer doesn’t boast an elite strikeout rate, that’s more a symptom of his elite sinker, than a lack of swing and miss stuff.
ferrer’s changeup (47% whiff rate) and slider (52% whiff rate) rank in the top 10 of all qualified pitchers. for reference, andres munoz’s slider is a top 5 pitch with a 51% whiff rate.
ferrer has all the elements of an elite reliever without the track record. it’s a great bet at the cost of ford, who is blocked by raleigh anyway.
https://x.com/pitchprofiler/status/1997420244541784388?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@kagami
another great coaching addition for the giants.
washington is one of the premiere defensive coaches in the league. this could really help devers, adames, eldridge, and whoever is the next 2b.
he also brings another former manager and mlb vet to round out the staff around vitello
https://x.com/bnightengale/status/1996586642824397054?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@kagami
the blue jays really adding to their pitching depth early in the off-season
worth keeping an eye on ponce. he could be another player who re-invents himself after playing oversees and then finds success in mlb
the blue jays probably consider dealing one of their other arms (maybe berrios) to reduce salary + add a position player (to replace bichette)
https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1996001377848307801?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@kagami
really cool initiative by the bananas to keep tickets affordable on secondary markets.
for a while, scalpers drove up prices into the mid 3 figures with many fans purchasing fake tickets.
so, the bananas built their own secondary market. if fans can’t attend the game, they can resell it at the price you paid.
the bananas even cover the taxes and buyer/seller fees.
https://x.com/joepompliano/status/1993748607925932127?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@zemm
Check out this DatabaseBall game, a big win for Devs! Devs 5, Ryanhube 1 ⚾🏆
Max Scherzer 2013 with 8 innings 10K. That's the kind of pitching line we need more of in AAA Tier.
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@kagami
imanaga is one of the more interesting qualifying offer stories this offseason
- cubs declined an option for 3 years at $57.75m
- imanaga declined his player option for 1 year at $15.25m
- cubs tender a $22.05m qualifying offer and imanaga accepts
what’s more interesting is what this tells us about the cubs, imanaga, and his market
- the cubs preferred financial flexibility and likely worried about imanaga’s regression this year
- imanaga likely didn’t have a strong market (partially due to the qualifying offer) and accepted a 1 year qualifying offer to allow him to prove he’s as good as is 2024 season
some big red flags for imanaga this year
- a ~1 mph velo drop on his fastball which was already well below league average
- declines in both his whiff, strikeout, and chase rates
- an increase in his average exit velo
if imanaga can find some of his extra velo from his rookie year, he could likely turn his “prove it” deal into a multi-year deal next offseason.
for now, he managed to take home $6.8m more than his player option this year.
https://x.com/mlb/status/1990889842016702643?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@zemm
Casual late career Griffeys getting minted today
Check out Ken Griffey (2005 CIN). He hit 0.301 with 35 hr and 0 sb, a 3.6 Player Value on DatabaseBall! 🏆⚾
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@kenny
we're so back
https://x.com/MLB/status/1990232054152266168?t=Lkz7FIgToDfq4Q81WrRo5A&s=19
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@kagami
if this is all the mariners do in the off-season, they’ve won
naylor seemed like the perfect organizational and clubhouse fit
https://x.com/mlb/status/1990232054152266168?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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@brixbounty
There’s levels to the game
https://x.com/nut_history/status/1989692139844841853?s=46
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