a follow up post to how the dodgers can spent $1.6b+ on free agents in the last two years—is it financially feasible for other teams to do this? while most teams keep financials private, the braves are one of the few public sports franchises. so, we'll use the braves' public filings to so if it's possible for them to compete with the dodgers financially. some quick context about the braves before diving deeper: - currently the 8th highest payroll heading into 2026 at ~$215m - top players like sale ($18m), acuna ($17m), and strider ($20m) signed to favorable deals - projected under the $241m luxury tax threshold for this year 1. the braves are delivering record revenues while the braves finished under .500, they're projected to hit ~$775-$800m revenue for 2025. that's between 7-10% year over year growth. the braves also reported $46m in profit and $150m in cash reserves. the braves also managed to sell 3+ million tickets for the 3rd consecutive year (5th highest in mlb) and made about $165m from media revenue. all in all, the braves are a healthy franchise with room to spend on free agents in the future 2. there are still major structural differences between the braves and dodgers despite record revenues, solid year over year growth, and the 5th highest ticket sales in the league, there's about a $200m+ gap between the braves and dodgers - revenue: the dodgers reportedly are the first mlb franchise to reach $1b+ revenue vs the braves projected $775-$800m - media rights: the dodgers generate $334m annually while the braves generated $165m in 2025 - stadiums: dodger stadium's max capacity is 56k while truist park is about 41k - revenue to payroll: the dodgers spend ~50% of revenue on payroll, while the braves historically have spent between 29-34% 3. the braves would need to spend ~50% of 2025 revenue to match the dodgers the dodgers collective bargaining tax (cbt) payroll is about $417m with an additional ~$169m in luxury tax penalties. the braves would need to add another ~$200m in cbt payroll to match the dodgers spending. that would result in the braves spending ~35% of their 2025 projected revenue. that additional spending would drive the to report an operating income loss of ~$225m. think about that for a second—a profitable and growing franchise with the 8th highest payroll would operate at a almost -28% operating margin if they tried to compete financially with dodgers. even with the braves success, they structurally have no ability to compete with the dodgers financial might.

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this is a huge victory for skubal and players (especially skenes) - skubal set a new arbitration record at $32m - david price previously set the arb record at $19.75m for pitchers - vlad jr set the record at $20m for highest awarded salary by an arb panel for skenes, $32m likely establish a his floor for his final arbitration year. even if he signs an extension before reaching his final year of arb, the pirates (or team that trades for him) will have to pay close to that amount to buy out his arb year some funny lore: skubal supposedly brought both his cy young awards to the arbitration hearing https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47840462/sources-tarik-skubal-wins-arbitration-tigers-make-32m

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im really excited for the world baseball classic but these uniforms are quite the disappointment feels like nike didn’t even try. only japan’s uniforms standout because mizuno created them.

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who will be first baseball player to get 1 billion dollar contract? skubel could come close next off season

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teams committed over $770m to short term (2-5 year) deals with at least one opt-out during this offseason—that's about 22% of all free agent spending. the majority of top free agents (tucker, bellinger, valdez, bichette) elected for these deals over long term (5+ years) security. so, why do the best free agents prefer short term deals with opt outs? 1. what exactly are opt out clauses? opt out clauses are player options. the player has the option, but not the obligation to opt out of their current contract or opt in to the remainder of it. these contract clauses were popularized by baseball's super agent, scott boras and have a solid track record of leading to larger, more lucrative contracts in the future. a few noteable players that have benefited from this strategy: - alex bregman: signed a 5 year $175m deal with the cubs - matt chapman: signed a 6 year $151m extension with the giants - pete alonso: signed a 5 year $155m deal with the orioles 2. players want to maximize earnings in their prime this year, bo bichette, kyle tucker, and framber valdez elected for high annual average value (aav) contracts that allow them to re-enter the market in 1-2 years. let's take a look at each players age, aav, and opt outs - kyle tucker | 28 | $60m | opt out a year 2 and 3 - bo bichette | 27 | $42m | opt out at year 1 and 2 - framber valdez | 32 | $38.3m | opt out at year 2 to put the aav into perspective - juan soto was the highest paid outfielder at ~$51m - jose altuve was the highest paid second basemen at ~31.5m - zack wheeler is the highest paid pitcher at ~$42m 3. why are teams willing to pay for these short term deals teams are more reluctant than ever to commit to large, long term deals. most of these deals become toxic towards the back half and hamstring teams financial flexibility to chase younger, better free agents that could improve them in the near-term. here's a few examples of long term deals that aged poorly: - nolan arenado | 8 years for $260m | traded twice - giancarlo stanton | 13 years for $325m | traded to the yankees - albert pujols | 10 years for $240m | released in final year - anthony rendon | 7 years for $245m | injured most of the contract - stephen strasburg | 7 years for $245m | retired and paid $150m all these long term contracts aged extremely poorly and are cautionary tales for teams. now, we're seeing teams adjust to pay high aav but still lesser long term commitments to buy players peak years. short term, high aav, opt out contracts are beneficial to all sides—players, teams, and agents. which explains the major rise in them this offseason.

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the dodgers have spent over $1.6b on free agents in the last two years—ohtani, yamamoto, glasnow, snell, tucker, diaz, and more. so, how can the dodgers manage to buy all the best talent? it's a combination of a favorable media deal, creative accounting, and financial prowess. 1. the dodgers $334m annual media deal sign through 2039 the dodgers generate $334m in local tv revenue every year, more than 2x the yankees ($143m+) and the phillies ($125m). on average, most teams pull in around $40-$60m in local tv revenue. in mlb, teams must share 34% of local revenues. but after filing bankruptcy in 2012, the dodgers negotiated a favorable revenue sharing deal with mlb to make the team more attractive. so, the dodgers only need to share 34% on $130m of its local revenues, not the total $334m. from tv revenue alone, the dodgers have $200m+ to direct towards free agents. 2. the dodgers get creative with accounting using deferrals the current collective bargain agreement (cba) calculates a teams payroll based on the annual average value (aav) of the present value of a players total contract. the dodgers leverage heavy deferrals to lower the aav of a contract to reduce their total payroll and luxury tax payments. in 2026, the dodgers have ~$132m in deferrals take ohtani for example—his 2026 salary is $70m with $68m deferred for an actual salary of $2m. because of the heavy deferrals, he's aav per the cba is around $46m that savings (~$24m) ends up redirected towards other players like yamamoto and snell or potentially put to work given ownerships financial background 3. the dodgers ownership group includes guggenheim partners guggenheim partners is a global asset management and advisory firm with over $350b in assets under management. so, instead of all the deferred money sitting idly or being re-invested, some of it is likely put to work. andrew friedman, the dodgers gm, has discussed how guggenheim takes the deferred money and immediately invests it to generate returns. you can image how those returns could be re-invested back into the team year over year by just purchasing 1-year t-bills or bonds. while deferrals and investing deferred money isn't new, the dodgers have maximized its benefits and paired it with an extremely favorable media deal to essentially buy the best talent regardless of cost.

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the reds probably got one of the better bargains (and fits) of the offseason—eugenio suarez for a year at $15m a quick breakdown on why this is such a great fit: 1. the reds are desperate for power in 2025, the reds finished 21st in the league in home runs despite player in great american ball park (gabp), the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the league. the reds only hit 167 hrs as a team, saurez hit almost 30% of that total by himself. suarez mashed 49 hrs between the diamondbacks and mariners, playing half his games in t-mobile, the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. suarez saw a 200+ point ops drop after his trade from arizona (.896 ops -> .683 ops) 2. gabp is the perfect ballpark for suarez suarez is an extreme pulled fly-ball hitter (28.6%) who ranked 5th among qualified right handed hitters last year. gabp sports a short left field porch (328 ft vs 331 ft in t-mobile) and cozy left-center field (379 ft vs 390 ft) that are suited for suarez's batted ball profile playing half his games in gabp should reduce his potential regression and give him power numbers closer to his time in arizona. zips dc currently has him projected to hit 35 hrs for the reds this year 3. the reds need protection for elly de la cruz the reds lineup is light on offensive based on zips dc projections. all hitters except for edlc and suarez projects to be league average or below (< 100 wrc+) in theory, edlc should get better pitches to hit with suarez hitting behind him. this was something the reds really lacked and may have contributed to edlc's regression in 2025 and to top this all off, suarez is on a one year deal. if the reds fall out of contention mid-season, suarez is a great trade chip that could net them a decent prospect or two from a playoff contender

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why is team puerto rico considering withdrawing from the wbc over insurance? player insurance is one of many topics rarely covered in sports. these policies allow teams to recover a portion of a players salary in the event of a covered injury. as contracts grow larger and larger, insurance has become a significant portion of financial planning for teams. insurance is so important that it can impact disabled list decisions and free agent signings. here's how player insurance works in mlb: - teams determines their individual risk tolerances + select which players they want to get coverage for - coverage usually ranges between 50-80% of a player's contract value - premiums can run as high as 10% of a players annual salary w/ coverage over a 3 year term like any policy, insurance companies will review player medicals, add exclusions (like for pre-existing conditions), and approve or deny coverage for each player a few recent examples of how this works: - in 2001: albert belle surffered a career-ending hip injury and the orioles recouped $23m of his $39m contract via insurance - in 2009: the diamondbacks withdrew a 3-year $50m+ offer to brandon webb after insurance refused to cover his pitching arm - in 2012: the nationals shut down stephen strasburg amid a playoff push due to concerns the insurance company may not cover an injury due to existing health concerns so, how is insurance driving team puerto rico to potentially withdraw? - wbc specific policies cover 100% of a players salary over 2 years (for position players) and 4 years (for pitchers) for any injury suffered during the wbc - mlb's insurance partner denied coverage for 8-10 players on the team puerto rico roster including lindor, edwin diaz, correa, and berrios - some of the coverage denials came a few days before wbc roster freeze which gives puerto rico no time to find replacements team puerto rico is currently working directly with mlb to re-review cases and find private insurance for players to allow them to play in the wbc. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7012509/2026/01/31/wbc-insurance-puerto-rico-francisco-lindor/

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i have mixed feelings about the a’s, but they’re positioned quite well for vegas (2028) by locking up their core now, the a’s will have a good amount of spending power to shore up the rotation even with some splurging, the a’s can still operate like a small market team while being competitive in a big market

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it’s always interesting when the press leak that a player turned down a “record breaking” contract the reds offered elly de la cruz (edlc) a contract that eclipses the franchise breaking $225m / 10 year deal that votto signed this paints edlc as greedy for turning down $225+ but edlc is likely already worth way more than $22.5m + average annual value (aav) how much more is he worth? let’s check a few comps based on edlc’s 4.3 fwar this year - willy adames produced 4.0 fwar making $26m aav - bo bichette produced 3.8 fwar and signed a $42m aav contract this offseason - dansby swanson produced 3.3 fwar making $25m aav edlc is also 3 years younger than bichette (27) who is the youngest player in the comps considering ~$10m per war is the benchmark, edlc is likely worth a contract similar to bichette especially when you factor in age and ceiling (edlc produced 6+ fwar last year). you could even argue, he’s in line for a soto/judge like contract if everything aligns for him. so, all in all edlc likely turned down a big low ball offer. especially since the reds/press didn’t leak the actual total contract value. https://x.com/theathleticmlb/status/2012369503108141268?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

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bader is a really good, quiet signing by the giants at $20.5m over 2 years while he hit .277 / .347 / .449 with a .346 woba and created about 22 more runs than the average player, that’s not the reason why the giants signed him in the outfield, bader was a +13 drs (defensive runs saved) and in the 92nd percentile (+7) oaa (outs above average) he’ll likely take jung hoo lee’s spot in cf. lee was a -18 drs and -5 oaa (11th percentile). this is a massive swing to quantify how big this is: - 10 runs = 1 war - lee -> bader in cf = 31 drs swing - equivalent to a 3 war swing - 1 war = ~$8-$10m - lee -> bader in cf = $30m value even if bader’s bat regresses (which is quite likely given his peripherals), he could easily outproduce his 2 year deal in a season

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next year, expect buster posey to be a first ballot hall of famer he’s 8th all time among catchers with 57.9 fwar despite playing between 600-1200 less games than catchers ahead of him he posted the highest fwar of any catcher in a single season at 9.8 (johnny bench posted a 9.2 fwar for second best) and to top it all off, he’s a 3x world champ, mvp, rookie of the year, and 2x comeback player of the year there’s no catcher better deserving than posey

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so hyped for the world baseball classic https://x.com/talkinbaseball_/status/2013788147469930906?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

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wild to see the dodgers at +225 while we’re still in the off-season tucker and diaz make the dodgers look unstoppable on paper, but there’s some decent volatility for both players diaz could end up similar to tanner scott, the dodgers big reliever splurge last year tucker has a checkered injury history and struggled down the stretch/in the playoffs for the cubs due to his injuries a few teams to keep an eye on here: - blue jays should have second best odds with a deeper pitching staff. they lost bichette, but they may find similar production with better defense from a combo of clement and a bounce back from santander - braves could sneak up on the mets and phillies if everyone stays healthy. while they haven’t made splashy free agent signings, richardson as their new first base coach could reap dividends on the base paths

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this picture captures oracle during one of two events… 1. karl the fog rolling in 2. the bleacher section during a giants playoff game https://x.com/baseballquotes1/status/2013028126427615462?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

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