April brought another new record low consumer sentiment, hitting 47.6 for the month. Not even March 2020 or 2008 saw consumer sentiment levels remotely near as low as they are right now.

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It’s called the “let’s get a pump” before summer, post tax date has been pretty reliable recent years. Yet I don’t have any sense this is real beyond a few bulls catalyzed by the break on “full on war” On pro side - still lots of capital looking for outsized returns Con - general US macro - if you aren’t in an energy producing state and headwinds in Asia… and that pesky debt Everywhere Pro - which will require printing and growth to avoid debt becoming an anchor headed toward the Mariana. Con - history of rising energy costs acting as a dampener on global economy. Personally think we’ll continue to see a bifurcation in the US between communities (states) with historically larger government with a heavy burden of pensions reducing spending directed toward growth. And housing costs limiting outlook for younger families in the most expensive regions. https://x.com/intern/status/2042424340159848501?s=46

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https://x.com/seanholeary1/status/2041884333754269773?s=46 Rabbit hole re energy costs over the next decade…

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Spring and summer 2026 theme: force majeure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

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If you had asked me a year ago what I thought would cause the next inevitable recession, I would have said tariffs, the collapse of the AI bubble, or the shaky private credit market. Trump's admin misjudging the completely predictable knock on effects of waging an illegal war on Iran was not even on my radar.

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Premise I agree with… https://x.com/bitpaine/status/2040923994904576447?s=46

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This was shared on Twitter and is indeed a good catch up on nat gas production and export stateside. https://x.com/freemyergreg/status/2036240149856788601?s=46

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I don’t have anywhere near a full understanding of all things Iran and Hormuz. Yet outside of direct manipulation from Japan and others, I don’t see a way that oil - especially Brent doesn’t go higher. Would expect it to push the 120 and get some speculation and short covering to push 150+ From a very uniformed vantage point. If lives weren’t being lost and productive capacity continually destroyed it would be “interesting” to see how our collective near term future plays out. As it is, death and destruction are hard to embrace. American consumers not exposed to equities run of the past two years are going to be stressed stressed. Let alone other nations. Not sure what to do but continue to occasionally monitor the situation as spring arrives and throws us full tilt into the busy season.

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“The market is always optimizing for where the river flows”

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For me no other single chart illustrates the K-shaped economy better than this one.

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On the bright side… wait a minute. Rocky week ahead. https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2035873209900503318?s=46

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https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2035801098024608196?s=46 Will be quite the test for the Warsh era Federal Reserve Rates going higher ???

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Good thread on bond market moves from Jim https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2035438165537047031?s=46

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Remember last fall when Trump said, "The word 'affordability' is a con job by the Democrats"? A month ago he said, “Do you notice, what word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability. Because, I’ve won. I’ve won affordability.” He has called tariffs his "favorite word" on multiple occasions. Last week a post of his said, "The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money." The problem is you aren't part of this "we" group unless you work for an oil company or own stocks in one. The February PPI (producer price index) numbers came out today. In one month the cost of services went up 0.5% and the cost of goods went up 1.1%. This means the PPI for the last year is now at 3.4%. Single month numbers haven't been this high in almost four years and year over year numbers haven't been this high in three years. We will see the effect of this in a few months as producers pass along their costs to consumers. Unfortunately, higher oil prices haven't even been factored into the equation yet. Typically, more than a 100 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on the 28th only 90 ships total, including under two dozen oil tankers, have gone through. The vast majority of these have been Chinese and Iranian. Trump has been using a variety of tools to attempt to keep oil prices down, but so far only his lie about the war being "very complete" has (temporarily) moved the market. The war is far from complete and will be going on for months, if not years. https://youtu.be/_09byNHJ7Uw?si=fF9gHsBrjWf3rNrJ

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I had no idea China maintained a strategic fertilizer reserve. Very smart! USA should of thought about fertilizer before launching this war. I've seen farmers saying food prices are going to go up 5-10% because of this shortage. https://thedeepdive.ca/china-curbs-fertilizer-exports-amid-global-supply-crunch-and-rising-prices/

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