No bueno

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New home builders in my County are offering seller incentives up to $40,000 (for the largest companies). Home builders are some of the first forced sellers when the real estate cycle starts to turn towards a bear market because they can't sit and wait, they have to move the units or bleed money. Home prices are a lagging indicator of such a meta shift because sellers are stubborn about dropping prices for months. The big builders listing prices don't drop right away because they want to keep values high in the development so instead they will continue increasing the incentives offered. A canary in the coal mine, maybe.

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for there to be consistent GDP growth *which sustain progressive politics*, there would have to be massive deregulation of healthcare (already happening with peptides), construction, and energy. the other consideration of current GDP growth is that contractual compute is underearning to spot, hyperscalers are flirting with credit wrappers including revenue share, but the priesthood of bayesian worldviews is selling you indulgences. the virtue signal of anti-AI is pro-authoritarian, even if offshored, and the chips are already circulating. there's an open question whether the market keeps lending to the value of routers with frontier planning and low-margin taskrabbits, but that's not counting the analogue of marketing and provenance for blue collar sector. some may imagine themselves capturing the economy to a politburo of vibes and essays, but the market is signalling otherwise. some might call that an imminent renaissance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbgvTlt1VB8

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I have noticed a lot of people on social media making comments lately about various aspects of the oil industry, particularly as it relates to the North American market, that show a lack of understanding. The increase in prices at the pump and the ongoing issues with supplies coming out of the Persian Gulf region have elevated this topic. The economics of petroleum are a lot more complicated than they seem at surface level. While oil is a global market, there are a lot of factors at hand beyond just supply and demand. In particular, it is important to consider geography and refining. This video should put a lot of things into perspective. The USA is the largest producer in the world currently, but that wasn't always the case. Structural aspects at play before the shale boom of recent years are still part of the American dynamic. Infrastructure in this industry is not cheap and decisions made in one decade can have an impact decades down the line. https://youtu.be/HtAcAwgVSVc?si=eILCKDLDDouBuJge

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higher

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Fantastic economics history lessons coming from Andrei Jikh’s YouTube channel lately. Topics covered: the U.S.’s plan to return to Alexander Hamilton’s economic system, the trilemma that pressures the U.S. to continue devaluing the dollar, and why the U.S. is exporting gold to China. https://youtu.be/dFjvcY9Tth0

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https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2076323181154230284 "to what extent does perfect competition lead to an optimal allocation of resources?"

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why does distribution matter for issuance, and why is GDP so valued? https://x.com/jmhorp/status/2074488346961760745?s=20

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many such cases https://x.com/i/status/2074348532514132053 gross metric is a paperclip for central planning like the fed or the census, so it's more ideal in simpler & scarce progression from material poverty. however, as the society is wealthier, indebted, and positionally sensitive, there obviously has to be more types of domestic product to service the continuity, like more questions on the census. my pet theory of the individual's "Very Important Vector" is the eventual gross resetting of fulfilling product, the global aggregate beyond post-scarce energy where instruments like compute (and agentic) futures cycle to humanitarian welfare. point being, such intricacies are mute and dull to the apparatchiks whose passive luxury depends on spinning vague collective propaganda without meeting every human where their internal world is sustained. https://farcaster.xyz/m-j-r.eth/0x4d2ca1fd

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We live in unique times. It's hard to say how this ends and what the fix will be. This is more than just a stock market that is overvalued and/or federal debt that is out of control. https://youtu.be/p3LLHecxm6M?is=R3cs3BTxWWykhsaT

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useful resource for anyone who really cares about this subject. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUl4u3cNGP62KS2YhlASvGBxxL8HgB11p

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if it wasn't clear before the IPO & Fable lockdown, currency is no longer welfare. fundraising is for political privilege, and we're not watching massive celebration of debt for autonomy. there is a clear moral contest over equity, over possessing natural right to own as much land, raise as much of an army, etc. a trillionaire is manifesting not because there is a trillion-dollar object to be flipped, but a commuter toll of a lifetime. wrt Anthropic/Fable, messing around with rhetoric and finance until USG intervenes is as positional and purposeful as SBF's attempt to outcompete CZ. considering conversations in 2023-4, there's been an explicit goal of depriving public of such means of information and persuasion, basically a coordinated bloc of debtors accusing their creditors of moral inferiority rather than concede repossession. Blue skies research is the opposite, an amoral inquiry of effective control, and we even moralize these creditors as angels to material progress. takeaway for me is that the former clearly assembled a moral movement, while the latter is juggling the lesser of evils for moral stasis. the stakes are higher & offline, so favors will be more consequential, as much as shakedowns for the privilege, but at a certain point of paper wealth the only drive is strategically divesting it for uncontested moral position (i.e. being left alone at the top), which becomes more valuable than ever. if there's more opensource diffusion, all the more resilient moral upside at cost of asymmetric position, all the more moderate circumstance for innovative debt, and the casino booms. any further moral brinksmanship will mint more trillionaires who never spend a trillion. people will never stop aspiring to be left alone at the top, which means all the more thrill for everyone else.

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Beef 🥩 Profit margin during COVID: $2 Profit margin now: $1000 🤑 500X 🐄 🐮 cowabunga

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Here is why oil prices have pulled back some in recent weeks and have yet to reach the prices analysts first predicted when the war in Iran began at the end of February. - China has cut imports by 40%, instead having refiners produce less and relying more on alternative forms of energy. - USA and other oil producers outside the Middle East have increased production and export levels as much as possible. - 400 million barrels of oil have been authorized for release from strategic oil reserves across the world, typically around 2 million barrels a day. US oil inventories haven't been this low since 2003. - A small number of oil tankers have able to get through the Strait of Hormuz by turning off their transponders and going "dark". - Saudi Arabia has pushed their east-west pipeline to the max in order to load tankers on its west coast more than previously. - Modern global economies are more resilient and require significantly less oil per unit of GDP than they did during the energy crises of the 1970s.

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No fun https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/may-inflation-report-gas-prices-iran-rcna349059

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