The dollar just posted its largest weekly fall since April tariff threats. Oof

1 reply

0 recast

4 reactions

The stock market is not economy. https://youtu.be/V57Qt-6z-_Y?si=VdL7cmxhWbUa961U

1 reply

2 recasts

5 reactions

Last chart you'll see before everything implodes

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

This is honestly a brilliant speech by PM Carney at the World Economic Forum today. He got a standing ovation. https://www.youtube.com/live/NTES1BIins0?si=I_cjXHBME4px23ND

2 replies

2 recasts

24 reactions

Illuminating interview with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on the methodology and day-to-day of negotiating American economic foreign policy. Incentives really are everything. https://youtu.be/fd6QaEJOjvI

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

But Trump said foreign countries pay the tariffs....turns out only 4%... Paywall removed link: https://archive.ph/mVq4p

0 reply

0 recast

3 reactions

Re: AI, robotics, deflation, cheaper everything …🚨 I guess it’s good to clarify couple of things that are being thrown around out of context: 1. AI & robotics advances leading to cheaper production of everything (>90% chances it will happen) But cheaper in a meaning of - today’s prices - or prices of assets that don’t devalue (think gold, Swiss Francs, maybe BTC) - or cheaper in a meaning of taking less time and resources. 2. In nominal terms prices will never really fall down because it would destroy the economy that’s based on debt - which is our (everyone’s) current system So however weird it may feel - prices in nominal terms will only go up even when resources and time needed to produce things will go down. 🤷‍♂️ Sorry to disappoint those who got sold only on half of the truth. 🙈

1 reply

23 recasts

34 reactions

Gold just passed US treasuries (essentially USD) in terms of central bank reserves. This hasn't been in the case in 30 years and yet no one is talking about it. This is the world signaling that they don’t trust the dollar. We all know that gold is permissionless. There is no counterparty. Currently the US is adding $1 trillion in debt every ~100 days and interest on that debt is $1 trillion per year. China, Russia, India etc (BRICS) are dumping US treasury bonds in favor of gold and silver. De-dollarization is accelerating. Think silver at $90 and gold at $4,600 is wild? You ain’t seen nothing yet!

1 reply

0 recast

7 reactions

the simplest definition of capitalism is any independently managed headcount (capita means head). this includes pastoralism, or releasing "heads" of a domesticated herd to graze on a free range, with the intent of later herding to market to barter for other goods. gold currency is just a substitute for grain payment.

1 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

15 year anniversary of the big short Michael lewis series went back and spoke to a bunch of the real characters including MB himself https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/michael-burry-speaks

5 replies

10 recasts

467 reactions

Bullish scenario: Regime change in Venezuela → sanctions ease → oil supply rises over time → energy inflation cools → central banks get cover to ease → capital pressure loosens.

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

go Mexico… $17.50/hour min wage! “Accounting for official inflation, the latest minimum wage increase will bring the accumulated rise in salaries to 154% in eight years. Yet when the former leftist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador began this process, many opposition politicians, business leaders and economists warned that it would fuel inflation as well as risk higher unemployment. Neither of these things have come to pass. Today, official unemployment in Mexico is 2.7%, close to its lowest level on record.”

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

tl;dr the AI bubble is a new class of debt that grows more prime over time. imho, nobody really believes that public corporations would abstain from a $1000/month-tier agent that can handle the time horizon of a workday, and that's only projected within the year. nobody really believes that post-IPO Anthropic and OAI can abstain from recursive AI research. open question how they offer credit to "loyal users" and other JIT data. now, everyone can arbitrarily spin out a content creator with immutable constitution and indefinite obligation. one can even stockpile arbitrary instruments for such a personality to leverage from a more capable future state. just an observation.

0 reply

0 recast

5 reactions

Watching shows from the zero-interest-rate 2010s counters the nihilism of the COVID-then-tightening 2020s.

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

That's not even remotely close to how this works.

7 replies

2 recasts

20 reactions