Trump and the rest of the Epstein class are going to have to choose: do they want a real estate economy or a world war economy? "Both" is their current answer and it's unsustainable: - up to ~$1.5 trillion in CRE and multi-family loans were made in 2020/2021 with very low rates which are set to expire in 2026/2027 - they're hoping the Fed rates come back down first so they can refinance. But ... Trump. Iran war. Energy crisis. Petrodollar crisis. So they are stuck and can't lower rates, and may have to raise them again, but even if not, the risk to the big institutional home buyers is the sustained duration of already high rates. They don't have 30 year mortgages, they have shorter term debt that gets refinanced regularly. - it's possible this causes a cascade of liquidations where institutional buyers become sellers and flood local markets with the missing supply that's been locked up by these funds. This could be caused by negative debt yields if they fall below debt-service coverage ratio limits. - there's potential legislation that could stop institutional buyers from purchasing SFRs going forward which would also help though they wouldn't be forced to sell existing inventory. - all this could possibly, if we're lucky, lead to a situation in several years where regular people can buy a first home again, if we can survive the crash financially ourselves. I would love to buy my family a home before I'm 50 🤞 but it's impossible today. Something has to give with the cost of living crisis. How do you see it playing out?

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10 year bonds in the USA hit 4.667% today. Economists think 5% is when things start to break. Inflation is ramping up very quickly. The market is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates. All of this is happening because Trump and Netanyahu started a war in the Persian Gulf. Things aren't looking too rosy out there. https://youtu.be/kaCcevHAu78?si=CAmMf2C_COXViHQv

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Taps the mf sign… hedonic adjustments y’all

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Ooof

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seems fair to extend the time value of money, that future value has to be compounding interest over as many periods, to a proximate value of money, or the spacetime value of money that requires distant value to be compounding interest in the logistics of its return to right here and now. realistically, this should be growing degree of discernment and nonfungibility between funds, a growing degree of localizing passive flows where and when it cannot be greater value in the infrastructure maintained to infinity. there is a goal for the sprawl of risk offering greater mobility as well as perpetuity, and as AI becomes more executor to testators, that is where grading of fitness to risk becomes more critical. that is where a persona of a crew becomes the likelier candidate for investment/insurance. this also raises a question of superintelligent politics. if the autonomous allocator is biased to merit-gated familial communism and product-gated local socialism, the highest detente of government and capital allocation resembles more of a weighted index of share in lower governments managing risk. the homestead thoughtform becomes the most memetically shiny object of capitalistic thrill. https://x.com/seldon_seen/status/2052750954412355652?s=20

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From Kobeissi Letter: "March PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.5%, the highest since August 2023. Core PCE inflation rises to 3.2%, the highest since November 2023. In the first month of the Iran War, US inflation hit a 3-year high. April's data will be interesting." The core number being that much higher means tariffs are still making their way in and that this just coincidentally is occurring when gas prices are going up. I think a lot of people may have been able to take this in stride in March and the beginning of April due to tax refunds. Those who own stocks may also "feel" more wealthy due to the psychological effects of unrealized gains, but this is a dangerous mindset to have imo. The one piece of good news I have seen in this area is that FedEx and UPS are offering people tariff refunds. I didn't look too far into the details, but I would imagine this is for goods ordered from overseas direct to your door.

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US national debt has now passed the size of the entire US GDP for the first time since WWII.

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“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” 108% of Avis stock owned by two hedge funds who were squeezing short sellers that bet against the company due to weak underlying fundamentals ($28bn debt, slowing sales) Nearly 58% of stock was short before they put on the squeeze and bought all outstanding. Now shorts have to sell at inflated prices to get out. Stock up 6x in a few months, finally coming down, well explained here https://x.com/pivot2centre/status/2046722410422935974?s=46&t=Mzh82nbovTS2hVetWoCw4A

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Are you not amused? https://x.com/barchart/status/2044878884731240805?s=46

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Still true today

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April brought another new record low consumer sentiment, hitting 47.6 for the month. Not even March 2020 or 2008 saw consumer sentiment levels remotely near as low as they are right now.

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It’s called the “let’s get a pump” before summer, post tax date has been pretty reliable recent years. Yet I don’t have any sense this is real beyond a few bulls catalyzed by the break on “full on war” On pro side - still lots of capital looking for outsized returns Con - general US macro - if you aren’t in an energy producing state and headwinds in Asia… and that pesky debt Everywhere Pro - which will require printing and growth to avoid debt becoming an anchor headed toward the Mariana. Con - history of rising energy costs acting as a dampener on global economy. Personally think we’ll continue to see a bifurcation in the US between communities (states) with historically larger government with a heavy burden of pensions reducing spending directed toward growth. And housing costs limiting outlook for younger families in the most expensive regions. https://x.com/intern/status/2042424340159848501?s=46

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https://x.com/seanholeary1/status/2041884333754269773?s=46 Rabbit hole re energy costs over the next decade…

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Spring and summer 2026 theme: force majeure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

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