Iran has struck more oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in the last 24 hours. They responded within minutes to Trump's assertion that the war would end after the mid term elections. Wholesale refined diesel, not the price at the pump but wholesale, went up 23 cents today. The national average is already at $5.94 and today is the 6th day in a row for new all time high pricing. The government forecasts the average for the entire year will be $5.07, and even that seems slightly conservative to me. The reason that diesel is so much higher than regular unleaded right now is due refineries. Russia normally exports a lot of diesel, but Ukraine has damaged many of their refineries and they've had an export embargo in place lately. In addition, refineries in the Persian Gulf are out of commission or can't get product through the strait. Finally, there is a major east coast Canadian refinery that went into maintenance mode last week.

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"..you need to make $39.84 an hour to be able to rent a modest two bedroom home in Washington State. For a one bedroom rental, the necessary wage drops to $33.33; for a studio, $31.51. The median hourly wage for all occupations in Washington State is $31.12 - which isn't even enough for a studio." Capitalism working as intended... Just not for us. (Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition)

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Nike https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2096317768408703022?s=46&t=Mzh82nbovTS2hVetWoCw4A

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https://x.com/TheDebriefing17/status/2095993425556332630

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"The dollar isn't weakening. It's being digitized. And the institutions digitizing it aren't crypto startups in El Salvador. They're Goldman Sachs and Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, operating under Treasury's rules, holding Treasury's bonds, screening transactions through Treasury's sanctions office." https://x.com/TheDebriefing17/status/2095516106655924501

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when in doubt, just build the infrastructure. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/opinion/us-debt-40-trillion.html

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You may have heard of the $20 burrito debate. He's a deep economic dive. https://youtu.be/RniprHVFuFI?si=0ZfnnmkY3wUwIsgM

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That Bessent "buy Japanese Yen $5-10bn" note he left intentionally visible to reporters was a big red flag. Patrick explains how Bessent is now battling hedge funds using his old playbook, which was to short currencies that are being artificially propped up unsustainably. He also explains how the Yen carry trade may seem like free money but it's profitable because participants are getting paid for the risk of being a bag holder for a system that could unwind quickly - us degens might know a thing or two about how that usually plays out. What do you think, is the Yen carry trade unwind coming soon, or they'll be able to keep propping it up? https://youtu.be/yh18YXKMk3g?is=U3vdHkjmcenGAlMz

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No bueno

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New home builders in my County are offering seller incentives up to $40,000 (for the largest companies). Home builders are some of the first forced sellers when the real estate cycle starts to turn towards a bear market because they can't sit and wait, they have to move the units or bleed money. Home prices are a lagging indicator of such a meta shift because sellers are stubborn about dropping prices for months. The big builders listing prices don't drop right away because they want to keep values high in the development so instead they will continue increasing the incentives offered. A canary in the coal mine, maybe.

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for there to be consistent GDP growth *which sustain progressive politics*, there would have to be massive deregulation of healthcare (already happening with peptides), construction, and energy. the other consideration of current GDP growth is that contractual compute is underearning to spot, hyperscalers are flirting with credit wrappers including revenue share, but the priesthood of bayesian worldviews is selling you indulgences. the virtue signal of anti-AI is pro-authoritarian, even if offshored, and the chips are already circulating. there's an open question whether the market keeps lending to the value of routers with frontier planning and low-margin taskrabbits, but that's not counting the analogue of marketing and provenance for blue collar sector. some may imagine themselves capturing the economy to a politburo of vibes and essays, but the market is signalling otherwise. some might call that an imminent renaissance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbgvTlt1VB8

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I have noticed a lot of people on social media making comments lately about various aspects of the oil industry, particularly as it relates to the North American market, that show a lack of understanding. The increase in prices at the pump and the ongoing issues with supplies coming out of the Persian Gulf region have elevated this topic. The economics of petroleum are a lot more complicated than they seem at surface level. While oil is a global market, there are a lot of factors at hand beyond just supply and demand. In particular, it is important to consider geography and refining. This video should put a lot of things into perspective. The USA is the largest producer in the world currently, but that wasn't always the case. Structural aspects at play before the shale boom of recent years are still part of the American dynamic. Infrastructure in this industry is not cheap and decisions made in one decade can have an impact decades down the line. https://youtu.be/HtAcAwgVSVc?si=eILCKDLDDouBuJge

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higher

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Fantastic economics history lessons coming from Andrei Jikh’s YouTube channel lately. Topics covered: the U.S.’s plan to return to Alexander Hamilton’s economic system, the trilemma that pressures the U.S. to continue devaluing the dollar, and why the U.S. is exporting gold to China. https://youtu.be/dFjvcY9Tth0

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https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2076323181154230284 "to what extent does perfect competition lead to an optimal allocation of resources?"

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