Economics
A place to talk about finance and the economy
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@mikeabundo
The world got weird after covid.
We’ve had the fastest rate hikes since the 80s, the longest tightening since the 80s, the worst stock market breadth since the 30s, and the longest government shutdown in history.
If the last three years felt off, it wasn’t just you.
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@icetoad.eth
These inflation numbers today are misleading on the surface. The shutdown caused the BLS to imput 40% of the data. This basically means they estimated various prices instead of using survey data.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/18/trust-these-numbers-economists-see-a-lot-of-flaws-in-delayed-cpi-report-showing-downward-inflation.html
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@brixbounty
Miran with the 50 bips meme…
https://x.com/stevemiran/status/2001040405790384436?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA
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@llamafacts.eth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxCnx7UZkPA In the era of AI, a good portion of all that new money they'll print will go to AI companies, not to create new jobs.
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@brixbounty
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1998067114792419647?s=46
Bonds doing their thing…
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@llamafacts.eth
There are 2 ways of understanding "free markets". One way (friedman), where there's absolutely zero interference in the the way markets operate, and, according to the theory, they should auto regulate supply and demand, and that auto regulation generates prosperity.
The second way is understanding "free" as "fair". This type of vision emphasizes the need for markets to be fair by enforcing anti monopoly rules so that there can be REAL competition, which ultimately is what generates prosperity.
Which type do you think creates more prosperity? or a mix of both?
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@mikeabundo
Crypto’s scared of its own four-year cycle, AI’s scared of its capex bill, and both are trembling days before the end of the longest QT in history.
Everyone’s running from shadows just before dawn. We might even trample ourselves to death before the sun comes up.
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@brixbounty
https://x.com/nicktimiraos/status/1993046976884359259?s=46
Nick is the favorite fed “caster” journalist for broadcasting moves ahead of the FOMC meeting
Odds of a Dec cut even without clear data went up the past few days.
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@olystuart
Who's writing or podcasting about the macro economic cycle? I need more econ sources that zoom out and talk about the real estate cycle, and other longer term market trends.
We should be somewhere near a peak for the real estate cycle looking back to 2008 as the last cycle bottom. But very few people are talking about this. Plenty of people discussing the AI stock market bubble which could be a crash trigger, but there's more money by far in real estate than the stock markets. The commodity cycle is very long also, I don't know as much about it.
Link me some sources :)
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