the simplest definition of capitalism is any independently managed headcount (capita means head). this includes pastoralism, or releasing "heads" of a domesticated herd to graze on a free range, with the intent of later herding to market to barter for other goods. gold currency is just a substitute for grain payment.

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15 year anniversary of the big short Michael lewis series went back and spoke to a bunch of the real characters including MB himself https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/michael-burry-speaks

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Bullish scenario: Regime change in Venezuela → sanctions ease → oil supply rises over time → energy inflation cools → central banks get cover to ease → capital pressure loosens.

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go Mexico… $17.50/hour min wage! “Accounting for official inflation, the latest minimum wage increase will bring the accumulated rise in salaries to 154% in eight years. Yet when the former leftist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador began this process, many opposition politicians, business leaders and economists warned that it would fuel inflation as well as risk higher unemployment. Neither of these things have come to pass. Today, official unemployment in Mexico is 2.7%, close to its lowest level on record.”

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tl;dr the AI bubble is a new class of debt that grows more prime over time. imho, nobody really believes that public corporations would abstain from a $1000/month-tier agent that can handle the time horizon of a workday, and that's only projected within the year. nobody really believes that post-IPO Anthropic and OAI can abstain from recursive AI research. open question how they offer credit to "loyal users" and other JIT data. now, everyone can arbitrarily spin out a content creator with immutable constitution and indefinite obligation. one can even stockpile arbitrary instruments for such a personality to leverage from a more capable future state. just an observation.

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Watching shows from the zero-interest-rate 2010s counters the nihilism of the COVID-then-tightening 2020s.

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That's not even remotely close to how this works.

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The world got weird after covid. We’ve had the fastest rate hikes since the 80s, the longest tightening since the 80s, the worst stock market breadth since the 30s, and the longest government shutdown in history. If the last three years felt off, it wasn’t just you.

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Yen again https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2001971825711153295?s=46

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These inflation numbers today are misleading on the surface. The shutdown caused the BLS to imput 40% of the data. This basically means they estimated various prices instead of using survey data. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/18/trust-these-numbers-economists-see-a-lot-of-flaws-in-delayed-cpi-report-showing-downward-inflation.html

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Miran with the 50 bips meme… https://x.com/stevemiran/status/2001040405790384436?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxCnx7UZkPA In the era of AI, a good portion of all that new money they'll print will go to AI companies, not to create new jobs.

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A huge week for macro ahead

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https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1998067114792419647?s=46 Bonds doing their thing…

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History won’t blame people for financial nihilism. It’ll blame interest rates.

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