@kazani
"To build intuition: suppose you walk past a geyser, and see a sign saying "This geyser last erupted 100,000 years ago". You know nothing else about geysers. What's the chance it will erupt in the next hour? It must be very low, right? If it erupted in the next hour, you would have walked past it 99.99999% of the way through its eruption cycle - in other words, your random sample had a higher value than 99.99999% of points. That's not how random samples usually work! On the other hand, suppose you walk past another geyser, and see a sign saying "This geyser last erupted 10 minutes ago". What is the chance that this geyser will erupt in the next hour? Pretty high, right? It seems like this geyser's eruptions occur on a scale of every few minutes. When you calculate it out, your median prediction for the length of time until the next eruption should just be the number on the sign. In the same way, your median prediction for how long it should take before an entirely-mysterious trend changes shape should be the amount of time since the last change."
The Sigmoids Won't Save You https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you