Prediction markets truly are a super valuable tool for making sense of events in real time.

Prediction markets truly are a super valuable tool for making sense of events in real time.

https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

Prediction markets are valuable but sadly  trading is not available in the US and some other markets, even on Polymarket after their $1.4M fine

you could even use a community notes-like mechanism for this

👍/👎 with a threshold weighted toward people who frequently disagree

+ a top-n to keep only the best notes that fit into the current chart view

just like online maps only show nonoverlapping labels at the current zoom

Only missing information is the context for those moves 

Would be cool if you could propose articles/tweets to add to a timeline which could be displayed similar to pasting a tweet on a tradingview chart

Found what I was missing and why this is still a coin flip

Found what I was missing and why this is still a coin flip

https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/20/23969586/sam-altman-plotting-return-open-ai-microsoft

Yes is still at 45 even though openai has a new CEO and Altman has officially joined Microsoft? What am I missing?

I bet the price of eth will under 1500 eoy at polymarket on October

Spread is wide (5-20 cents) and liquidity is poor (~$100 per point) but f*ck it, with 95% of employees signing that letter I'm going to roll w it!

Wow, literally bet based on the idea? Sounds weird but funny

Never really got into Polymarket - looks cool, have heard of before. Any idea if they have an API? More curious about querying the data vs actually interesting. Could be cool for dashboarding purposes.