politics

Totally out of my lane here, but I think World War III may have already started, just not in the traditional sense. It’s playing out through proxy wars, economic shifts, and realignments. If history picks a date, we might already be living it.

The American empire is at a critical point. One of its foundations, the dollar, is under threat. The U.S. dollar has long been propped up by global demand, especially oil trading in USD. That’s changing. BRICS is growing. Saudi Arabia and others are signaling openness to trading oil in other currencies. If that continues, one core pillar of U.S. power weakens.

At the same time, the U.S. is stretched thin. Ukraine is draining resources. Iran is heating up. I wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea sparks the next flashpoint. It’s a multi-front strategy that benefits Russia and its allies.

Russia and China are working together for now, but they have deep mistrust and overlapping ambitions. They won’t be long-term allies. I actually think China and the U.S. may realign in the future based on economic interests.

Germany might also pivot. Their manufacturing economy needs cheap energy, and Russian gas used to supply more than half of it. If the economic pain gets too high, a future partnership with Russia isn’t out of the question.

Iran is the real trap. It’s mountainous and hard to invade. If the U.S. is pulled into a ground war there, it could be the breaking point. War fatigue + internal division = serious domestic instability. Maybe even civil unrest.

I’m not an expert, and I’m not taking sides. Just thinking out loud about how the pieces are moving. Could be way off, but something big is definitely shifting.

Not like I completely disagree with you @jacek, but saying 'Ukraine is draining resources' feels like a blunt overstatement. 

I'm sure you didn't mean it, yet wording DOES matter, especially with abundance of existing disinformation.

The U.S. has been committing billions to Israel annually (over $3 billion), left behind $7 billion in equipment during the Afghanistan withdrawal, let alone spent funds for operations in Yemen, Iran, and protecting Israel's sky.

A lot of the equipment sent to Ukraine—over $50 billion since 2022—was already slated for replacement, like M113s or TOW missiles, so it’s not a simple drain.

That said, certain critical equipment, like artillery shells or anti-aircraft missile systems/rockets are indeed limited.

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True, but Farcaster is not Twitter, and Jacek is not an average russian sympathizer

Keep in mind that most people here seem to be getting their news from the Twitter temple of Russian disinformation, so this statement seems pretty mild at this point...