I'm a little late to this but here's my bull case/bear case.

Bear: This isn't an amazingly innovative or groundbreaking idea, so it seems like if it was going to be a game changer they would've done it a long time ago. Feels more like desperation. Like picking some old things up from the cutting room floor. Perhaps a way to hide trouble in paradise. Also, the idea that people are dying to find more services and "experiences" to spend their money on just feels very 2010s millennial vibes.

Bull: As the economy deteriorates more, people will be looking for new ways to make side income through gig work and side hustles. Airbnb's existing market share will instantly make it the central marketplace for people who don't want to do Uber or Doordash. The problem with this bull case is that if the economy does in fact deteriorate, who's going to pay for all the services and experiences? The top ten percent will not float the entire economy forever.

Rating: Mostly Bear
https://x.com/bchesky/status/1922364651775385999

My read more broadly for asset trends:

1. 90s was Dotcom garbage 
2. Late 2000s was high-end real estate (NYC, London, LA)
3. 2010s FAANG/MAG7-y stuff 
4. 2020s/early 2030s will be gold, Bitcoin and (some) crypto assets 

Housing, moreover, feels cooked as dying boomers pass off their boomer homes onto offspring

So I’m somewhat of a different mindset on commodities. I think OPEC is gonna go under bc of FF innovation, which will tank energy prices, and I do wonder if metals/minerals mining will ramp up so hard that it’ll all just revert to the mean faster than we all expect. I could be wrong!