MJC
@mjc716
i was listening to a spaces last night with a bunch of nyc local electoral politics analysts/reporters mamdani sitting at about 40% on polymarket right before the 9pm close general sentiment on the space is that he's a slight underdog 9pm close, data starts to hit, mamdani immediately jumps to 75-80% it takes these guys 10-12 minutes of manual model work to arrive at "slight edge to mamdani" at which point polymarket is already pushing 90% random thoughts: 1) i knew we were early but didn't think we were this early 2) prediction markets should be renamed to information markets. they're more about pricing available information than predicting events, which seems like a trivial distinction but is something that might help explain their significance 3) what a privilege it is to work everyday in an industry at the frontier of knowledge and technology
1 reply
2 recasts
21 reactions
Purp🇵🇸
@purp
Kalshi or whatever it was and polymarket earlier had moved to Mamdani winning, polymarket had moved back to normal cumo but can't remember the other one did
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
MJC
@mjc716
i think they're all highly correlated because of arb opportunities, so not sure I fully buy this
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction