Ethereum

Unironically, I think most alt-L1s will become L2s

@celo showed the playbook:
– Halved inflation from 2% to 1%
– Reduced block times from 5s to 1s 
– Eliminated 300k+ lines of legacy code
– Fully integrated into Ethereum’s ecosystem, the largest dev community in crypto
– Carbon emission's cut in half (if you're into that)

It’s just a better model
https://x.com/hubkotl/status/1944463402916528562

In 2021, I wrote extensively on this topic. On paper, purely technically, it was a no-brainer - greater performance, interoperability, secure access to ethereum liquidity, security & decentralization, significantly lower inflation for economic sustainability, etc. etc. 

Since then, all major new chains have been L2s - from DAOs (Unichain) to crypto corporations (Coinbase, Kraken) to tradfi (Robinhood), with the sole exception of Hyperliquid. There have been some L1 > L2 like Celo as mentioned. However, over 4 years, most legacy L1s have remained L1s.

Potential reasons:
- Application demand growth has been a fraction of expectations. Most L1s have barely any activity and have no need for the greater performance or interoperability of L2s
- L2 & blob dev have slowed down since '22 potentially due to the above, with performance much lower than expected in '25
- Much of their token value is based on being an anti-ethereum cult
- The industry has pivoted to degeneracy, decentralization/security matter less now

To be clear, this is a retrospective of what has happened in the last 4 years, why I was wrong, and there's no comment on the next 4.

You’re no ordinary dummy!
I respect your candor. 

It’s really helpful to read post like this that put the last four years and perspective. Degeneracy tends to blur the lines.