polynya (polynya)

polynya

Blog: https://polynya.mirror.xyz/

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No idea what the context is, but it's pretty clear in the last few years the crypto industry has barrelled down the cascade of degeneracy. At this point, it's institutionalised and normalised, and even the biggest players are deep into the game. To be clear, I use "gambling" in the broader sense, and yes, we're obviously seeing the same in AI stocks, Gold etc. Some of it is real, sure. The TAM for gambling is 1,000x larger than building actual products in the short-medium term, so I don't blame anyone, especially respect those who are clear they just want to extract. It's all a shame because the few actual sustainable products are better than they have ever been, and if the crypto industry had gone down the productive path instead, I'd still be writing about those.

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In 2017, Bitcoiners fought tooth and nail over block size, with one camp claiming Bitcoin will die without drastically increase throughput, while the other saying Bitcoin will die by increasing system requirements and compromising decentralization. In November 2017, Bitcoin Cash got to nearly 50% the market cap of Bitcoin under this premise, with a substantial minority convinced Bitcoin Cash would flippen Bitcoin They were both wrong! 8 years later, Bitcoin despite its anemic block size is barely utilized, but it's become a multi-trillion dollar success story. Bitcoin Cash, meanwhile, is 0.5% the market cap of BTC, 1/100th of its peak The lesson: the TAM for gambling is thousands of times greater than whatever "blockchain utility" you can think of Re: "subsidy sustainability" - also doesn't matter, as by the time that happens, most BTC will be owned by ETF custodians, and they can effectively turn it into PoS or PoA or whatever they want. All that matters is belief and religious fervour in the ticker

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Dan is right, but that aside; Personally, I do care, but the crypto industry has failed to deliver it, and has chosen a path of plutocracy & corporatocracy. Which is fair enough, as institutional speculation has a 3-4 orders of magnitude larger TAM, and it's more important to pump bags than deliver maximally neutral technology. On that note, there's a multi-trillion dollar cults built around BTC, ETH et al today, and it's definitely worth targeting that, even if technologically the solutions are suboptimal. Remember, you're invested in a ticker, not your blockchain or its tech, so in usecases where there's better & more appropriate tech than your blockchain available or waiting to be invented, you should embrace it under your banner, instead of dismissing it as "bearish". Blockchains are clearly transitory tech begging for obsolescence by more decentralised, more democratic, more efficient tech.

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For my personal use, crypto is in a great place. Fees, speeds, wallet UX, applications are perfectly fine for my usecases, and they'll keep getting better. However, I'd like to see some things significantly improved, in order of importance: - CRITICAL: Configurable withdrawal rate limiting in Safe & smart wallets and indeed, in all smart contracts, should be a standard. Without this, I significantly limit my usage of crypto - Custodial standards for smart wallets - Stage 2+ decentralisation for L2s, complete overhaul for Tron (normies receive USDT on Tron) - EUR stables w/ liquidity - Better frontends & standards - More competition & options for minimal hardware wallets - Range order management for Uniswap V4 - Significantly less volatile, reliable, long-term sustainable and high liquidity SoVs (BTC and ETH are far too erratic) - Integration into widely adopted payment networks, both global and domestic - Some inaccessible assets tokenised as RWAs - Farcaster with bustling non-crypto content/discussions

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Uniswap v4 feels like crypto's first complete product. Uniswap v3 was already nearly there, which is one reason why while previous versions took ~1 year, v4 took 4 years. I can see additional functionality (e.g. unified liquidity) and responding to infra changes (e.g. quantum-resistant zkVMs) that will justify a v5, but the core purpose of this application now feels complete for the foreseeable future. What's remaining is now on the governance & social end. Aave v4 is the next candidate for a complete product. Interestingly, the applications are hitting final form years ahead of the infra they're built on, and in cases like Aave v4, being intertwined with infra itself. (Side-note: of course, simple "products" like memecoins or USDT are "complete")

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No idea what the context is, but it's pretty clear in the last few years the crypto industry has barrelled down the cascade of degeneracy. At this point, it's institutionalised and normalised, and even the biggest players are deep into the game. To be clear, I use "gambling" in the broader sense, and yes, we're obviously seeing the same in AI stocks, Gold etc. Some of it is real, sure. The TAM for gambling is 1,000x larger than building actual products in the short-medium term, so I don't blame anyone, especially respect those who are clear they just want to extract. It's all a shame because the few actual sustainable products are better than they have ever been, and if the crypto industry had gone down the productive path instead, I'd still be writing about those.

  • 73 replies
  • 82 recasts
  • 633 reactions

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