Data

Quite a few people were interested in the PnL of Farcaster users on Polymarket. Here’s a quick breakdown:

* Overall, Farcaster users show a 75% negative vs 25% positive PnL split, which is almost identical to the overall Polymarket user base.

I also did an extra breakdown by Farcaster account types and PnL status (positive vs negative):

* By FID number – not much difference
* By follower count – also not much difference
* By total number of casts – there seems to be a slight correlation: as the number of casts increases, the share of users with a positive PnL rises a bit, reaching over 80% for those with more than 20k casts

Overall, it seems Farcaster users don’t have much more insider info than the general Polymarket user base. But it might be better to look at performance per specific market topics 👀

Building something, interested in AI x SocialFi x Data | @reachbot /getreach | Open-source human-readable EVM data https://github.com/3loop/loop-decoder

Ethereum

This was an interesting analysis. Thanks for doing this 

Now just tell me do i need to cast more or do I need to cast less to make more moneeeey on Polymarket

Ahah, it is still a mistery

Going back in time and putting millions on trump seems like the main strategy traders used to make the biggest PnLs on Polymarket