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Nastya
@nastya
Quite a few people were interested in the PnL of Farcaster users on Polymarket. Here’s a quick breakdown: * Overall, Farcaster users show a 75% negative vs 25% positive PnL split, which is almost identical to the overall Polymarket user base. I also did an extra breakdown by Farcaster account types and PnL status (positive vs negative): * By FID number – not much difference * By follower count – also not much difference * By total number of casts – there seems to be a slight correlation: as the number of casts increases, the share of users with a positive PnL rises a bit, reaching over 80% for those with more than 20k casts Overall, it seems Farcaster users don’t have much more insider info than the general Polymarket user base. But it might be better to look at performance per specific market topics 👀
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Nastya
@nastya
Lol, I made a big typo in the text. It should say: The group of users who cast a lot shows an increase in the % of users with a negative PnL More casts -> worth PnL
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Rch
@rch
This was an interesting analysis. Thanks for doing this Now just tell me do i need to cast more or do I need to cast less to make more moneeeey on Polymarket
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James 🌟
@metawavestudio
Parallels with first year stock trader pnl.
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jon
@jongill
Would be interesting to understand if there are any differences in position sizes and how that might correlate to PnL in terms of magnitude vs. percentage. Nonetheless, love the insights!
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Rolex
@riyaj
👀🫡
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goated.
@rezaisgoat.eth
good insights! Great analysis!
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kev
@kev
Opportunity to profit early also comes with opportunity to be early and miss…farcaster allows members to be early…not every app/coin/project will be profitable.
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