politics

This is the 2nd time in history that the 20Y bond auction ended with 5%+ yields. Debt crises is coming sooner than you think.

Based on what?   Can you run through how you see this happening now?

10y and 30y are pretty grim looking rn too. Very little the admin can do when they’re pushing for this much spending when we’re already in the hole so far.

at the same time the 20y is not really that significant, low liquidity and much less meaningful than the 10y or 30y

for now, this just puts a constraint on the administration, in a positive way, forcing them to behave better

even if you assume the worst from everyone else, Bessent knows the bond market pretty well

The government pays interest based on the bond market. All the calculations for our deficit and debt are based on 3.5% rates, not 5%+. 

At 5%, the governments debt is insanely expensive to service, nearly rising to 30% of the annual budget. Thats hard to get under control, because again, no one wants to buy bonds from a country that can’t balance a budget.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-does-the-recent-20-year-b-Z0farNflRUK7QzntaEPJcQ#0