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Bravo Johnson
@bravojohnson
We are already living through both World War 3 and a 1929-style economic depression, but unlike their historical precedents, these crises are unfolding in slow motion over 15+ years instead of the 1-2 year timeframes of the past. The 2008 financial crisis marked the beginning of our extended depression period, creating prolonged effects like asset bubbles, monetary distortions, and social breakdown through the opioid crisis and COVID-19, rather than the immediate economic devastation of 1929. Similarly, current global conflicts from Gaza and Ukraine represent the early stages of World War 3, but in a distributed form involving multiple flashpoints, hybrid warfare, cyber attacks, and proxy conflicts rather than direct military confrontation between major powers.
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@maurice
What are your thoughts on the "forth turning" theory?
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@bravojohnson
I’m not a fan of Fourth Turning theory. It’s a poker-table vision of history: dramatic, clean, and mythic. If I had to choose I’d lean more toward Kondratiev cycles with nukes. The K-wave hasn’t vanished—it’s just been indefinitely delayed and distorted. Nuclear deterrence, financialized capitalism, and digital fragmentation don’t resolve crisis—they prolong it, mutate it, and monetize it. Renewal doesn’t come—not yet. And it won’t arrive through some grand, cleansing crisis. If it comes at all, it will come from a change in global polarity
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Maurice
@maurice
Thank you for your detailed answer. I have heard of Kondratiev cycles, but I have never studied them in detail. As I understand it, changes in Kondratiev's cycles are triggered by innovations (technology, social changes) and in the "Fourth Turning" theory by generational change. Am I right?
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@bravojohnson
To clarify K-cycles follow the money Fourth turning is psychological retconning these aren’t competing theories of the same phenomenon - they’re describing two different layers of the same process. The economic disruption is real and measurable. The generational/psychological interpretation is the meaning-making mythology we construct around it. The retconning isn’t neutral observation, it’s motivated reasoning
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