Reduced crash risk but no sustained recovery belief - preference fading 90,000 attempts over breakout positioning . Call premium sold exceeds bought during grind higher Participants selling premium for carry not upside commitment - short-term panic removed but structural fragility remains 🎯⚠️👀
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Bitcoin's market structure has strengthened materially, with spot volumes rising from $4B-$13B in the prior cycle to $8B-$22B/day today. Long-term volatility has continued to decline, with 1-Year Realized Volatility falling from 84.4% to 43.0%. Meanwhile, futures activity expanded to a record $67.9B in open interest, with CME accounting for roughly 30% of total Ol, a clear institutional footprint.
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The market is experiencing a slow bleed characterized by steady spot selling into thin bid liquidity, creating a grinding decline that’s harder to reverse than leverage-driven capitulation events,” said Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, a firm specializing in decentralized finance.
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