politics

Professor at NYU. Interested in Cryptography.

A doodler and computerer. I like permissive/permissionless open source, smart contracts, p2p systems, room-scale VR, and NixOS.

shazow.net

Currently: WhatsABI

ah, that makes sense to me.

so e.g. we’re assuming the influx of Cuomo sellers at 80-90% were buyers at ~20% who still think he’s going to win but are locking in gains

sorry, should have put "correct" in scare quotes lol (no indication if it's going to be correct at epoch, just that it's the current prevailing position that they purchased at a discount)

i've seen this happen a lot on open prediction election markets with substantial volume.

my theory is that there's a lot of early buyers who took the correct position, and as it starts to approach the resolution epoch, the cost/benefit of getting the last few % vs cashing out early starts to shift.

let's say i bought at 5% and now it's sitting at 85%, i already got 1700% relative returns, why risk everything for another +15% (17% relative return)?

so all of these people start cashing out, which starts a downward trend, which perpetuates for a while until it recalibrates back.

The NYC real feel right now is 109 degrees and tomorrow the actual temperature will be 100. 

There's no way to accurately predict the outcome of this race.

(Fun fact: we're supposed to have rolling brownouts this week to save power, based on Cuomo's stance while he was governor to not fund updates to city infra 🫠)