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LuminousQuasar

@luminousqusar

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LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
June 26, Thursday High-Level Voices: Trump stated that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy large amounts of oil from the U.S. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests. Overall Sentiment: Trump's remarks about China continuing to buy oil were mainly to highlight that Iran has not blocked the strait. Yesterday, the market was ignited by news that a big security company in Hong Kong can directly purchase cryptocurrencies, leading to a surge in H-share brokers, which then spread to A-share brokers and A-share insurance stocks. Trading volume also reached a new level. Brokerage stocks are often seen as a bellwether for market trends, and their surge is typically viewed as a leading indicator of a bull market. It's expected that other brokers' Hong Kong branches will soon apply for license upgrades to trade cryptocurrencies as well.
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LuminousQuasar
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June 24, Tuesday High-Level Voices: Late on June 23, Trump posted that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, effective 6 hours later, at midnight ET on June 24. Overall Sentiment: Last night, Iran, as usual, notified the U.S. before launching rockets, causing no casualties at U.S. bases. Then Trump announced the Israel-Iran ceasefire, and it's obvious Iran backed down. This regional conflict should now subside, with all parties getting what they needed. International oil and gold prices fell sharply, while assets previously dragged down by the war rebounded comprehensively.
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LuminousQuasar
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June 23, Monday High-Level Voices: At 10:00 PM Eastern Time on June 21, U.S. President Trump delivered a speech on the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, stating that Iran's key nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed." Overall Sentiment: The weekend's focus was entirely dominated by President Trump. On Friday, Trump indicated that military action wasn't certain, but on Saturday, he suddenly struck, catching Iran off guard. Iran's nuclear facilities have likely been heavily damaged. Once the conflict begins, there are two possible paths: if the U.S. gets bogged down like Russia, it could pose a long-term shock to the U.S. economy; if it's a swift resolution, the impact will be minimal. Oil prices surged briefly but remained restrained. The market seems to expect a quick resolution.
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LuminousQuasar
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June 20, Friday High-Level Voices: Xi Jinping held a phone call with Vladimir Putin, focusing on exchanging views on the Middle East situation. Xi proposed four points: promoting a ceasefire is the top priority; ensuring civilian safety is of utmost importance; initiating dialogue and negotiations is the fundamental solution; the international community's efforts to promote peace are indispensable. Overall Sentiment: On Monday evening, Iranian state media hinted at a major event, leading markets to speculate about a possible large-scale missile launch. However, it seems the "missile" hit the A-share market instead. The median A-share stock fell 1.84%, and H-shares dropped 2%. The national team likely had no contingency plan and did not intervene, resulting in a market rout. There has been a long-standing push to make the valuation of A-share companies listed in Hong Kong higher than their A-share counterparts. However, yesterday, even Haitong Securities, listed in Hong Kong, broke its issue price.
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LuminousQuasar
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June 19, Thursday High-Level Voices: The Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no action. Overall Sentiment: Last night, hours before the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, Trump fiercely criticized Fed Chair Powell, calling him "foolish" and expressing doubt that the Fed would announce a rate cut. As expected, the Fed held rates steady. Yesterday, A-shares and H-shares showed rare divergent trends, with real estate leading declines in both markets. However, A-shares' banking sector propped up the index, likely due to the Lujiazui Financial Forum being held in Shanghai.
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LuminousQuasar
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June 18, Wednesday High-Level Voices: Trump posted on social media: "We now have complete air superiority over Iran," and "The U.S. knows exactly where Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenel is, but we will not assassinate him at this time. However, the U.S. does not want missiles targeting civilians or U.S. forces. " Overall Sentiment: Global attention remains on the Middle East, with Israel continuing airstrikes on Iran. Iran seems to have few options left but refuses to surrender. A newly appointed leader was recently killed, leaving unconditional surrender as seemingly the only path. International oil and gold prices have started to decline. A-shares and H-shares tell without clear catalysts, with oil and gas extraction being the best-performing sector. It feels like China's capital markets are reacting half a step slower than other regions.
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LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
June 17, Tuesday High-Level Voices: The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic data, showing that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew by 5.8% year-on-year. Overall Sentiment: The financial data quietly released over the weekend showed a complete collapse in new household loans in May, with the largest portion being mortgage loans. The official release of this data is likely intended to prevent further shifts in expectations for the real estate market. As expected, the housing price data for 70 major and medium-sized cities released yesterday showed a comprehensive decline, with first- and second-tier cities, which had previously stabilized, now fully turning to declines. It feels like the real estate stimulus measures started last year have exhausted their effects, and without further stimulus, the decline may accelerate.
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LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
June 16, Monday High-Level Voices: The People's Bank of China released data showing that at the end of May, the stock of social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, M2 money supply increased by 7.9%, and M1 money supply rose by 2.3%. Overall Sentiment: The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising short-term geopolitical risks and suppressing investor sentiment, leading to a broad decline in global stock markets. Crude oil prices were hit hardest, with traders heavily buying call options on crude after airstrikes, betting on prices exceeding $80. Gold prices hit a recent high. The Chinese central bank quietly released May financial data, which was underwhelming. New household loans in May fell 40% year-on-year, and cumulative new loans for the first five months dropped 55%. The central bank's interpretation: May financial data reasonably matches the real economy, with social financing, M2, and RMB loan growth all significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth.
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Friday, June 13, High-Level Voices: Xinhua commented on the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, stating that resolving the long-standing structural contradictions and deep-seated differences in China-US economic and trade relations cannot be achieved overnight. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday, the US dollar index fell below 98, hitting a recent low. From a technical perspective, this is a critical support level to watch, and a break below could trigger a new round of dollar depreciation, leading to a broad rally in dollar-denominated commodities. Additionally, the US ordered the evacuation of some embassy personnel and their families from Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, raising market concerns about instability in the Middle East. This drove significant gains in both oil and gold prices. US stocks also rose amid expectations of interest rate cuts.
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June 12, Thursday High-Level Voices: From June 9 to 10 local time, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. Both sides engaged in candid and in-depth discussions, thoroughly exchanging views on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. Overall Sentiment: The official statement on the China-U.S. trade talks has been released. To translate: "candid and in-depth dialogue" means tough words were exchanged; "exchanging views on issues of mutual concern" means each side stated their own position; "reaching a principled agreement" means the talks didn't collapse; "making new progress" means there will be another round of talks. The U.S. May core CPI data came in higher than April's but below market expectations. After the data release, U.S. stock index futures turned from losses to gains.
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June 11, Wednesday High-Level Voices: On Tuesday, Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that the China-US negotiation teams, after two days of talks, have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report back to their respective leaders. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday, both A-shares and H-shares experienced a dramatic plunge. Right after the market opened in the afternoon, all indices for A-shares and H-shares plummeted, primarily due to rumors circulating since noon about unsuccessful trade negotiations. Initially just rumors, a Xinhua News Agency post at 1:02 PM stated: "China-US relations are at a critical juncture, and both sides should adhere to principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation to expand the list of cooperative initiatives and grow the pie of collaboration." This essentially confirmed the rumors, triggering an immediate market dive. Subsequently, all financial media accounts that reposted the Xinhua article were banned.
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June 10, Tuesday High-level Voice: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the CP| fell 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI dropped 0.4% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month, and fell 3.3% year-on-year. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday morning, the National Bureau of Statistics and the General Administration of Customs released data simultaneously, with no surprises. Inflation data continued to decline, but the Bureau no longer emphasized the absence of deflation. Import and export data showed little change, with exports still growing and imports continuing to fall. A director from the Customs Administration provided some optimistic outlooks. The differing tones in the two agencies' interpretations suggest which data is more positive.
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June 9, Monday High-Level Voices: On June 7, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson announced: At the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK, he will hold the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism with the US side. Overall Sentiment: Over the weekend, China officially announced the schedule for trade talks with the US, once again choosing a third-party country-this time the UK, which has already reached a trade agreement with the Us, giving the talks a stronger US-home-field vibe. This round will involve the implementation of specific trade rules, making negotiations significantly more challenging than the previous round. US stocks rebounded on Friday, and Tesla halted its decline, but news over the weekend about the departure of its robotics chief may continue to negatively impact Tesla and, by extension, the Nasdaq in the short term.
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June 6, Friday High-Level Voices: President Xi Jinping held a phone call with U.S. President Trump at the latter's request. Xi stated that the Chinese people always honor their words with actions, and since a consensus has been reached, both sides should adhere to it. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday, the top leaders of China and the U.S. held a phone call. Although no specific details were disclosed by either side, this appears to be a positive signal. The market likely viewed this as the most significant news of the day. However, the situation escalated dramatically in the evening. Trump and Musk engaged in a heated exchange on Twitter, with one threatening to cancel all subsidies and the other exposing damaging information about the other. Tesla and related stocks plummeted, and U.S. markets closed broadly lower.
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June 5, Thursday High-Level Voices: U.S. May ADP employment increased by 37,000, below expectations of 110,000 and down from the prior 62,000. After the data release, President Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates, adding, "It's unbelievable, Europe has already cut rates nine times. " Overall Sentiment: Yesterday's market news was unremarkable, with the focus on the U.S. The newly released U.S. employment data significantly missed expectations. Minutes after the release, Trump directly called out Fed Chair Powell, highlighting their clear conflict. U.S. stock index futures, not yet open, dipped immediately. Powell's Fed Chair term ends in May next year, and Trump is expected to replace him with someone aligned with his policies. The market's uncertainty lies in how Powell will act in the remaining 10 months.
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June 4, Wednesday High-Level Voices: The U.S. claims China violated the Geneva talks consensus. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the Geneva consensus was reached by both sides based on mutual respect and equal consultation. Overall Sentiment: Signs of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions are emerging. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bassant claimed China failed to honor Geneva commitments, suggesting high-level intervention may be needed. On Friday, Trump tweeted that China isn't fulfilling promises and can't be indulged further. This coincided with China short holiday, so no response was made initially. Official responses came yesterday, the first working day of June, with the Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry attributing the issue to the U.S. Despite previous rounds of mutual tariff hikes and supply chain disruptions, U.S. CP| hasn't risen, which may be bolstering U.S. confidence now.
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June 3, Tuesday High-Level Insights: The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's Manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Overall Sentiment: On Friday, Trump stated he would reconsider trade negotiations with China, indicating that details from the previous Switzerland talks have not been implemented, and the U.S. is growing impatient. Over the weekend, there was no significant response from our side. On Monday, Hong Kong stocks opened down as much as 2% but were gradually pulled up by capital inflows. The trading pattern suggests it was not the work of state-backed funds. Trump's erratic policy shifts are losing their impact, as markets are no longer reacting strongly to his sudden aggressive moves.
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May 30, Friday High-Level Voices: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that trade partners are cooperating with goodwill, and their stance has not changed in the past 48 hours. Several major agreements are nearing completion. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday's market hotspots were all tied to the U.S. Tightened U.S. export controls on chip design sparked enthusiasm for domestic substitution in China, while blockchain concepts also rode the wave of attention, with Hong Kong's ZhongAn surging 30%. However, compared to the 170% surge in U.S. Ethereum-related stocks overnight, it's clear where the real heat is. In the U.S., internal tariff battles continue, with U.S. courts directly challenging Trump, though the Trump administration has multiple ways to bypass court restrictions. Under this pressure, Bessent's claim that some agreements are close to being finalized has left markets skeptical.
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May 29, Thursday High-Level Voices: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released early this morning show that policymakers generally believe economic uncertainty is higher than before.. Overall Sentiment: After yesterday's close, markets saw unusual activity, with the U.S. dollar surging and gold dropping. The main trigger was Japan's Ministry of Finance intervening in the Japanese bond market, leading to two consecutive days of declines in Japanese long-term bonds, dragging U.S.Treasury yields below the 4.5% mark. The key focus now is today's 40-year Japanese government bond auction—if the results are poor, it could spark a new wave of selling. The Bank of Japan's intervention seems a bit late this time. The A-share market was lackluster yesterday, with auto stocks continuing to fall as market players traded blame, each accusing the other of being the "Evergrande of the auto industry."
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May 28, Wednesday High-Level Voices: Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China grew by 3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March. Overall Sentiment: Yesterday's market was lackluster, with new energy vehicle companies continuing to face heavy selling pressure-now openly dubbed the "Evergrande of the auto industry" despite having the highest stock price. Hong Kong stocks, unusually, diverged from A-shares, with gains expanding after the A-share market closed. Some Hong Kong stocks rode the wave of the U.S. stablecoin craze, surging 15%. U.S. major indices performed strongly, and Europe, under Trump's intense pressure, returned to the negotiating table. Some U.S. stocks tied to blockchain concepts soared over 500%.
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