LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
158 Following
14 Followers
June 5, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
U.S. May ADP employment increased by 37,000, below expectations of 110,000 and down from the prior 62,000. After the data release, President Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates, adding, "It's unbelievable, Europe has already cut rates nine times. "
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market news was unremarkable, with the focus on the U.S.
The newly released U.S. employment data significantly missed expectations. Minutes after the release, Trump directly called out Fed Chair Powell, highlighting their clear conflict.
U.S. stock index futures, not yet open, dipped immediately. Powell's Fed Chair term ends in May next year, and Trump is expected to replace him with someone aligned with his policies. The market's uncertainty lies in how Powell will act in the remaining 10 months. 0 reply
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June 4, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
The U.S. claims China violated the Geneva talks consensus. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the Geneva consensus was reached by both sides based on mutual respect and equal consultation.
Overall Sentiment:
Signs of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions are emerging. Last week,
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bassant claimed China failed to honor Geneva commitments, suggesting high-level intervention may be needed. On Friday, Trump tweeted that China isn't fulfilling promises and can't be indulged further. This coincided with China short holiday, so no response was made initially. Official responses came yesterday, the first working day of June, with the Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry attributing the issue to the U.S. Despite previous rounds of mutual tariff hikes and supply chain disruptions, U.S. CP| hasn't risen, which may be bolstering U.S. confidence now. 0 reply
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May 30, Friday
High-Level Voices:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that trade partners are cooperating with goodwill, and their stance has not changed in the past 48 hours. Several major agreements are nearing completion.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market hotspots were all tied to the U.S. Tightened U.S. export controls on chip design sparked enthusiasm for domestic substitution in China, while blockchain concepts also rode the wave of attention, with Hong Kong's ZhongAn surging 30%. However, compared to the 170% surge in U.S. Ethereum-related stocks overnight, it's clear where the real heat is.
In the U.S., internal tariff battles continue, with U.S. courts directly challenging Trump, though the Trump administration has multiple ways to bypass court restrictions. Under this pressure, Bessent's claim that some agreements are close to being finalized has left markets skeptical. 0 reply
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May 28, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China grew by 3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market was lackluster, with new energy vehicle companies continuing to face heavy selling pressure-now openly dubbed the "Evergrande of the auto industry" despite having the highest stock price. Hong Kong stocks, unusually, diverged from A-shares, with gains expanding after the A-share market closed. Some Hong Kong stocks rode the wave of the U.S. stablecoin craze, surging 15%. U.S. major indices performed strongly, and Europe, under Trump's intense pressure, returned to the negotiating table. Some U.S. stocks tied to blockchain concepts soared over 500%. 0 reply
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Monday, May 26
High-Level Voices:
U.S. President Trump recently stated that the EU requested an extension of the trade negotiation window, and he has agreed to extend the deadline to July 9.
Overall Sentiment:
On Friday, Trump stated that due to unsuccessful negotiations with the EU, he would ignore the previously mentioned buffer period and impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1. This led to a U.S. stock market drop of up to 2% on Friday, though it recovered half the losses by close. Over the weekend, a reversal occurred, with Trump announcing that the EU had softened its stance, and he agreed to extend the buffer period back to July 9. After this round of turbulence, Europe is likely to adopt a less hardline stance in trade negotiations.
The financial market's reaction to Trump's moves is becoming increasingly muted, as his tactic of extreme pressure has largely been figured out. 0 reply
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Friday, May 23
High-Level Insights:
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 500 billion yuan
MLF operation today with a one-year term. With 1250 billion yuan in MLF maturing this month, this results in a net MLF injection of 3750 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive month of increased renewals.
Overall Sentiment:
Despite the PBOC's continuous net liquidity injections, the market remains lackluster and lacks momentum. In a deflationary environment, the liquidity injected by the PBOC is not reaching the frontline. A key reason for April's financial data collapse was a sharp drop in loans, as many banks halted lending to export companies to control risks amid the China-U.S. trade war, with limited new loan growth through other channels.
Yesterday, the banking sector led A-share gains with a 1% rise, hitting a new high since 2007. As the PBOC's liquidity accumulates in banks, they hold a slight advantage over other sectors. 0 reply
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May 22, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The Financial Regulatory Authority and eight other departments jointly issued Several Measures to Support Small and Micro Enterprise Financing, proposing increased lending for first-time loans, credit loans, medium- and long-term loans, corporate loans, and private enterprise loans.
Overall Sentiment:
On Wednesday, the U.S. faced a double blow in stocks and bonds. A new U.S. tax bill raised market concerns. As the Memorial Day (May 26) deadline set by the House Speaker approaches, the bill is expected to pass after lawmakers agree on state and local tax deductions. Due to the significant changes in this reform, markets are assessing its impact on the U.S. budget deficit, leading to risk aversion amid uncertainty.
Tensions between Israel and Iran risk escalating, and with various uncertainties, gold prices rebounded sharply. 0 reply
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May 21, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
China's latest LPR was released, with the 1-year rate dropping to 3% and the 5-year rate dropping to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points, marking the first reduction since October last year.
Overall Sentiment:
The interest rate cut finally happened yesterday, down by 0.1%, more symbolic than substantial. The six major banks also lowered deposit rates simultaneously, with the one-year fixed deposit rate now below 1%. The trend is clear: China is heading down Japan's path in 1990s, likely witnessing zero or even negative interest rates in the coming years.
Last night, gold prices surged by 1.5%, driven by a sell-off of the U.S. dollar on Monday, which is also tied to the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. 0 reply
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May 19, Monday
High-Level Voices:
International credit rating agency Moody's announced that due to the increasing proportion of U.S. government debt and interest payments, it has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aal, while adjusting the U.S. sovereign credit rating outlook from "negative" to "stable."
Overall Sentiment:
Moody's downgrade of the
U.S. credit rating had little impact. Previously, S&P and Fitch also adjusted their ratings, yet the U.S. credit rating remains the world's highest, not affecting U.S. debt issuance.
However, U.S. Treasuries did experience a dip following S&P and Fitch's adjustments.
On Friday, both A-shares and H-shares fell, with April's dismal financial data still weighing on markets. The lack of effective tools in the policy toolbox to address current issues is increasingly evident. The market did not naturally improve due to smooth trade negotiation progress; instead, it underwent sharp style shifts due to changes in Mutual Fund assessment methods. 0 reply
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May 15, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
According to the latest financial statistics released by the central bank for April 2025, the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 1.5% year-on-year at the end of April, slightly down from 1.6% in March. The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8% year-on-year, accelerating from the previous month.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market rally was driven by the impact of new fund manager compensation rules, prompting large-scale fund managers to quickly reallocate to underweighted sectors, leading to a buying frenzy in the financial sector.
Originally, regulators intended to encourage institutional investors to increase holdings in tech stocks by penalizing fund managers who underperformed their benchmarks. However, this "stick without carrot" policy led public funds to cut positions in uncertain tech stocks and instead pile into more clustered sectors like banking, insurance, and liquor.
Ultimately, the relations of production determine productivity. 0 reply
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May 12, Monday
High-Level Insights:
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's CP| in April rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.4% decline last month, while it fell 0.1% year-on-year, matching last month's decline. PPI dropped 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from last month, and fell 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month.
Overall Sentiment:
The weekend was dominated by attention on U.S.-China trade talks, with many rumors later debunked. Only Trump posted a tweet claiming significant progress, but neither side has made official statements. However, market movements suggest that investors do not expect talks to collapse outright.
April's CP| and PPI continued to decline, with the overall trend of negative inflation unchanged. 0 reply
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May 8, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The central bank announced ten policy measures, including reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, a press conference by three ministries announced a series of policies, including reserve and interest rate cuts. Previously, the central bank hesitated to cut rates due to concerns over exchange rate depreciation pressure. However, with the U.S. dollar recently depreciating, the central bank gained room to lower rates. Yet, the market did not surge as it did in September, instead showing a classic pattern of opening high and closing low. The market hotspot was the military-industrial sector, benefiting from the India-Pakistan conflict. The positive impact from the press conference was minimal. China confirmed its agreement to engage in trade negotiations with the U.S., which is a significant influence on the market. 0 reply
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