LuminousQuasar (luminousqusar)

Tuesday, September 24 High-Level News: • On Tuesday, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, will hold a press conference with two other officials to discuss financial support for economic development. Shortly after this announcement, the People's Bank of China reduced the 14-day reverse repurchase rate, matching the cut from July. Overall Sentiment: • Yesterday, the State Council Information Office announced that a press conference will be held at 9:00 AM on Tuesday, where the Governor of the People's Bank of China, and other two financial officers will be present. Following the announcement, the reduction of the reverse repo rate was seen as the first step in official interest rate cuts, leading to various market rumors, mainly focusing on reducing existing home mortgage rates and lifting the purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai. • Due to expectation management, failing to meet these expectations would be considered below market expectations.

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nice moth

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February 11, Tuesday High-level Voices: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over a State Council executive meeting to discuss measures to boost consumption. The meeting emphasized strong support for increasing residents' income, promoting reasonable growth in wage income, supporting the rapid development of new types of consumption, and promoting "Al + consumption" Overall Sentiment: Both A-shares and H-shares continued to rise, with the market adhering to the longstanding post-Spring Festival trend shift. The breakthroughs in the DS model and box office records during the Spring Festival gave a boost of energy. The three major telecom operators saw a significant rise just after announcing their integration with the DS model. Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. This time, the measures are not directed at any specific country but apply to all countries involved.

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February 13, Thursday High-level Voices: • The U.S. January non-seasonally adjusted CP| rose by 3% year-over-year, expected to rise by 2.9%, previous value rose by 2.9%; after seasonal adjustment, CP| rose by 0.5% month-over-month, expected to rise by 0.3%, previous value rose by 0.4%. Overall Sentiment: • The U.S. January CP| was higher than market expectations, further dampening hopes for a U.S. rate cut. Traders have shifted their bets from a September rate cut to a December one, meaning if inflation data continues to exceed expectations, there might not be a rate cut in 2025. • Maintaining high interest rates in the U.S. impacts the exchange rates of other currencies against the dollar. Here, we actually hope more than the U.S. that they cut rates; a persistent high interest rate differential will continue to pressure the RMB exchange rate.

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