LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
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June 24, Tuesday
High-Level Voices:
Late on June 23, Trump posted that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, effective 6 hours later, at midnight ET on June 24.
Overall Sentiment:
Last night, Iran, as usual, notified the U.S. before launching rockets, causing no casualties at U.S. bases. Then Trump announced the Israel-Iran ceasefire, and it's obvious Iran backed down. This regional conflict should now subside, with all parties getting what they needed. International oil and gold prices fell sharply, while assets previously dragged down by the war rebounded comprehensively. 0 reply
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June 23, Monday
High-Level Voices:
At 10:00 PM Eastern Time on June 21, U.S. President Trump delivered a speech on the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, stating that Iran's key nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed."
Overall Sentiment:
The weekend's focus was entirely dominated by President Trump. On Friday, Trump indicated that military action wasn't certain, but on Saturday, he suddenly struck, catching Iran off guard. Iran's nuclear facilities have likely been heavily damaged.
Once the conflict begins, there are two possible paths: if the U.S. gets bogged down like Russia, it could pose a long-term shock to the U.S. economy; if it's a swift resolution, the impact will be minimal.
Oil prices surged briefly but remained restrained. The market seems to expect a quick resolution. 0 reply
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June 20, Friday
High-Level Voices:
Xi Jinping held a phone call with Vladimir Putin, focusing on exchanging views on the Middle East situation. Xi proposed four points: promoting a ceasefire is the top priority; ensuring civilian safety is of utmost importance; initiating dialogue and negotiations is the fundamental solution; the international community's efforts to promote peace are indispensable.
Overall Sentiment:
On Monday evening, Iranian state media hinted at a major event, leading markets to speculate about a possible large-scale missile launch. However, it seems the
"missile" hit the A-share market instead.
The median A-share stock fell 1.84%, and H-shares dropped 2%. The national team likely had no contingency plan and did not intervene, resulting in a market rout.
There has been a long-standing push to make the valuation of A-share companies listed in Hong Kong higher than their A-share counterparts. However, yesterday, even Haitong Securities, listed in Hong Kong, broke its issue price. 0 reply
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June 19, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no action.
Overall Sentiment:
Last night, hours before the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, Trump fiercely criticized Fed Chair Powell, calling him "foolish" and expressing doubt that the Fed would announce a rate cut. As expected, the Fed held rates steady.
Yesterday, A-shares and H-shares showed rare divergent trends, with real estate leading declines in both markets. However, A-shares' banking sector propped up the index, likely due to the Lujiazui Financial Forum being held in Shanghai. 0 reply
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June 17, Tuesday
High-Level Voices:
The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic data, showing that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew by 5.8% year-on-year.
Overall Sentiment:
The financial data quietly released over the weekend showed a complete collapse in new household loans in May, with the largest portion being mortgage loans. The official release of this data is likely intended to prevent further shifts in expectations for the real estate market. As expected, the housing price data for 70 major and medium-sized cities released yesterday showed a comprehensive decline, with first- and second-tier cities, which had previously stabilized, now fully turning to declines. It feels like the real estate stimulus measures started last year have exhausted their effects, and without further stimulus, the decline may accelerate. 0 reply
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June 16, Monday
High-Level Voices:
The People's Bank of China released data showing that at the end of May, the stock of social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, M2 money supply increased by 7.9%, and M1 money supply rose by 2.3%.
Overall Sentiment:
The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising short-term geopolitical risks and suppressing investor sentiment, leading to a broad decline in global stock markets. Crude oil prices were hit hardest, with traders heavily buying call options on crude after airstrikes, betting on prices exceeding $80. Gold prices hit a recent high.
The Chinese central bank quietly released May financial data, which was underwhelming. New household loans in May fell 40% year-on-year, and cumulative new loans for the first five months dropped 55%. The central bank's interpretation: May financial data reasonably matches the real economy, with social financing, M2, and RMB loan growth all significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth. 0 reply
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Friday, June 13,
High-Level Voices:
Xinhua commented on the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, stating that resolving the long-standing structural contradictions and deep-seated differences in China-US economic and trade relations cannot be achieved overnight.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, the US dollar index fell below 98, hitting a recent low. From a technical perspective, this is a critical support level to watch, and a break below could trigger a new round of dollar depreciation, leading to a broad rally in dollar-denominated commodities.
Additionally, the US ordered the evacuation of some embassy personnel and their families from Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, raising market concerns about instability in the Middle East.
This drove significant gains in both oil and gold prices. US stocks also rose amid expectations of interest rate cuts. 0 reply
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June 11, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
On Tuesday, Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that the China-US negotiation teams, after two days of talks, have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report back to their respective leaders.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, both A-shares and H-shares experienced a dramatic plunge. Right after the market opened in the afternoon, all indices for A-shares and H-shares plummeted, primarily due to rumors circulating since noon about unsuccessful trade negotiations. Initially just rumors, a Xinhua News Agency post at 1:02 PM stated:
"China-US relations are at a critical juncture, and both sides should adhere to principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation to expand the list of cooperative initiatives and grow the pie of collaboration." This essentially confirmed the rumors, triggering an immediate market dive.
Subsequently, all financial media accounts that reposted the Xinhua article were banned. 0 reply
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June 9, Monday
High-Level Voices:
On June 7, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson announced:
At the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK, he will hold the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism with the US side.
Overall Sentiment:
Over the weekend, China officially announced the schedule for trade talks with the US, once again choosing a third-party country-this time the UK, which has already reached a trade agreement with the Us, giving the talks a stronger US-home-field vibe. This round will involve the implementation of specific trade rules, making negotiations significantly more challenging than the previous round.
US stocks rebounded on Friday, and Tesla halted its decline, but news over the weekend about the departure of its robotics chief may continue to negatively impact Tesla and, by extension, the Nasdaq in the short term. 0 reply
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June 5, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
U.S. May ADP employment increased by 37,000, below expectations of 110,000 and down from the prior 62,000. After the data release, President Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates, adding, "It's unbelievable, Europe has already cut rates nine times. "
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market news was unremarkable, with the focus on the U.S.
The newly released U.S. employment data significantly missed expectations. Minutes after the release, Trump directly called out Fed Chair Powell, highlighting their clear conflict.
U.S. stock index futures, not yet open, dipped immediately. Powell's Fed Chair term ends in May next year, and Trump is expected to replace him with someone aligned with his policies. The market's uncertainty lies in how Powell will act in the remaining 10 months. 0 reply
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June 4, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
The U.S. claims China violated the Geneva talks consensus. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the Geneva consensus was reached by both sides based on mutual respect and equal consultation.
Overall Sentiment:
Signs of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions are emerging. Last week,
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bassant claimed China failed to honor Geneva commitments, suggesting high-level intervention may be needed. On Friday, Trump tweeted that China isn't fulfilling promises and can't be indulged further. This coincided with China short holiday, so no response was made initially. Official responses came yesterday, the first working day of June, with the Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry attributing the issue to the U.S. Despite previous rounds of mutual tariff hikes and supply chain disruptions, U.S. CP| hasn't risen, which may be bolstering U.S. confidence now. 0 reply
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May 30, Friday
High-Level Voices:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that trade partners are cooperating with goodwill, and their stance has not changed in the past 48 hours. Several major agreements are nearing completion.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market hotspots were all tied to the U.S. Tightened U.S. export controls on chip design sparked enthusiasm for domestic substitution in China, while blockchain concepts also rode the wave of attention, with Hong Kong's ZhongAn surging 30%. However, compared to the 170% surge in U.S. Ethereum-related stocks overnight, it's clear where the real heat is.
In the U.S., internal tariff battles continue, with U.S. courts directly challenging Trump, though the Trump administration has multiple ways to bypass court restrictions. Under this pressure, Bessent's claim that some agreements are close to being finalized has left markets skeptical. 0 reply
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May 28, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China grew by 3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's market was lackluster, with new energy vehicle companies continuing to face heavy selling pressure-now openly dubbed the "Evergrande of the auto industry" despite having the highest stock price. Hong Kong stocks, unusually, diverged from A-shares, with gains expanding after the A-share market closed. Some Hong Kong stocks rode the wave of the U.S. stablecoin craze, surging 15%. U.S. major indices performed strongly, and Europe, under Trump's intense pressure, returned to the negotiating table. Some U.S. stocks tied to blockchain concepts soared over 500%. 0 reply
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