December 08, Monday Top-level voices: China Real Estate News published an editorial stating that the stabilization trend in the real estate market is gradually improving, but moving forward still faces considerable challenges and pressures. Overall sentiment: Over the weekend, the new Administrative Measures for Mutual Fund Companies were released. The most important institutional innovation is that fund sales must prevent scale-oriented incentives, and the weight of client profit-and-loss indicators must be no less than 50%. This practice of evaluating sales performance based on post-sale client outcomes is a very bold innovation globally — it's like holding pharmaceutical sales representatives responsible if the patient doesn't get better after the drug is sold to the hospital, rather than blaming the doctor. Of course, the confidence to implement such institutional innovation comes from the fact that the stock market has remained stable at a high level over the past year.
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December 04, Thursday Top-Level Voices: U.S. November ADP "small non-farm" employment data showed private-sector jobs fell by 32,000 in November, the largest decline since March 2023 and far worse than the market expectation of a 10,000 increase. Overall Sentiment: According to Politico, the U.S. Commerce Secretary has recently met multiple times with executives from robotics companies and expressed "full support" for accelerating the industry's development. Insiders revealed that the Trump administration is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year. Stimulated by this news, U.S. stocks continued to rise, with Tesla leading the gains. The Trump administration is also discussing that if Kevin Hassett is appointed as the next Fed Chair, the vacant position of White House National Economic Council Director might be taken concurrently by Scott Bessent. U.S. stocks continue to climb under the sustained push from the Trump administration.
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December 03, Wednesday Top-level voices: China and Russia held strategic security consultations, conducted comprehensive and in-depth communication on major issues involving the strategic security interests of both countries, reached new consensus, and enhanced strategic mutual trust. Overall Sentiment: A-shares continued to fall with shrinking volume yesterday. Trading volume has dropped to about half of this year's peak level. The market is now in an awkward phase: without policy stimulus, it cannot return to the previous upward channel. However, various ministries and commissions are in a "year-end rest and recuperation" mode, and even if there are positive policies in the pipeline, they prefer to hold them until next year. U.S. stocks are much more positive. Media has already revealed the likely candidates for the next Fed leadership, and the market expects another rate cut in December, so U.S. stocks continue to rise.
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