LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
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July 17, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
China's housing prices fell at an accelerated pace in June, with new home prices recording the largest monthly decline in eight months.
Real estate investment from January to June also dropped significantly, down 11.2% year-on-year, hitting a historic low.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, A-share turnover reached 1.44 trillion yuan, with the median stock price up 0.36%. After a day of volatility, the Shanghai Index barely held above 3500. The newly released housing price data, showing a sharper decline, was more convincing to the market than the previously upbeat GDP figures. Real estate-related sectors were heavily hit, and news emerged after the market closed that Vanke is seeking to extend domestic loans.
Vanke has roughly 3600 billion yuan in loans, mostly short-term debt, and with its credit rating downgraded, rolling over loans to repay old ones is no longer feasible, meaning it may struggle to repay without extensions. 0 reply
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July 16, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. By quarter, Q1 GDP grew by 5.4%, and Q2 grew by 5.2%.
Overall Sentiment:
The National Bureau of Statistics released first-half economic data. The impressive figures failed to stimulate the market, while the simultaneously released 70-city housing price data felt more grounded. To keep GDP growth above 5%, the Bureau went all out, but even pulling consumption to 5% wasn't enough, as investment dropped significantly. This led to the peculiar situation where investment, foreign trade, and consumption all lagged behind the GDP figure, creating a case of
"one plus one equals more than three." On the second day after the Bureau announced it would stop reporting unemployment rates, it declared a 5.3% income growth-true magical realism.
Trump has officially launched plans to sideline the Federal Reserve Chair, with an announcement on the next Fed Chair appointment expected soon. 0 reply
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July 15, Tuesday
High-Level Insights:
The People's Bank of China released data showing that in the first half of this year, China's social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, up 4.74 trillion yuan from the same period last year.
The General Administration of Customs reported that, in RMB terms, China's total goods trade import and export value reached a record high of 21.79 trillion yuan for the same period, up 2.9% year-on-year.
Overall Sentiment:
A highlight of June's financial data is the narrowing of the M1-M2 scissor gap. At the start of the year, it was as high as 8.7%, but by June, it had shrunk to 3.7%. This reduction suggests that money previously idle in banks is starting to flow into economic activities, a positive signal. However, since the composition of M1 was adjusted in January, this change cannot be entirely attributed to economic activity. The financial data, released after market close, exceeded expectations. 0 reply
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July 10, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's June CP| rose 0.1% year-on-year, Core CP| continued to rise, up 0.7% year-on-year, hitting a 14-month high.
Overall Sentiment:
Trump posted a letter on social media to leaders of eight countries regarding new tariffs: Brazil will face a 50% tariff, Libya, Iraq, Algeria, and Sri Lanka 30%, Brunei and Moldova 25%, and the Philippines 20%. These new rates will take effect from August 1. These countries indeed lack the ability to resist. Yesterday, a significant event occurred in the A and H share markets: a surge in CATL's H shares lifted its A shares, which in turn boosted the ChiNext Index. Using the smaller float of H shares to drive the larger float of A shares is emerging as a new trend. 0 reply
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July 8, Tuesday
High-Level Voices:
Trump stated that an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries that "align with the anti-American policies of the BRICS nations."
Overall Sentiment:
Trump's statement targeting BRICS nations comes as their leaders meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BRICS leaders recently condemned attacks on Iran and Gaza, calling for reforms in global institutions and positioning BRICS as a multilateral diplomatic haven amid violent conflicts and trade wars.
According to AFP, citing sources, diplomats from the 11 emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are drafting a joint statement condemning the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policies.
However, before the statement could be finalized, Trump preemptively escalated tensions.
This puts BRICS nations in a dilemma: should they still issue the statement?
Influenced by this, U.S. stocks saw a broad decline on Monday. 0 reply
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July 3, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The People's Bank of China recently issued a notice clarifying that for cash transactions of RMB 100,000 or more (including 100,000) per transaction or daily cumulative amount, precious metals and gemstone trading institutions must fulfill anti-money laundering obligations and report accordingly.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, the market moved forward under policy support. Despite an overall market decline, sectors highlighted in official meetings saw gains. The official stance is to regulate low-price, disorderly competition, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the exit of outdated production capacity. Players in these industries believe everyone else is outdated, leading to widespread sector gains.
Despite positive policy signals, overall market trading volume shrank. With gold purchases above 100,000 yuan now regulated, earlier speculations about loosening restrictions seem even less likely. 0 reply
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July 1, Tuesday
High-Level Voices:
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in June, China's Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Composite PMI were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, up by 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, the A-share military sector surged due to rumors that Iran plans to purchase a large number of Chinese fighter jets. However, given the complex international environment, China has not yet decided whether to proceed with the sale.
Canada announced the cancellation of its digital services tax and preparations to resume trade talks with the U.S., boosting U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new historical highs. 0 reply
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June 24, Tuesday
High-Level Voices:
Late on June 23, Trump posted that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, effective 6 hours later, at midnight ET on June 24.
Overall Sentiment:
Last night, Iran, as usual, notified the U.S. before launching rockets, causing no casualties at U.S. bases. Then Trump announced the Israel-Iran ceasefire, and it's obvious Iran backed down. This regional conflict should now subside, with all parties getting what they needed. International oil and gold prices fell sharply, while assets previously dragged down by the war rebounded comprehensively. 0 reply
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June 23, Monday
High-Level Voices:
At 10:00 PM Eastern Time on June 21, U.S. President Trump delivered a speech on the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, stating that Iran's key nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed."
Overall Sentiment:
The weekend's focus was entirely dominated by President Trump. On Friday, Trump indicated that military action wasn't certain, but on Saturday, he suddenly struck, catching Iran off guard. Iran's nuclear facilities have likely been heavily damaged.
Once the conflict begins, there are two possible paths: if the U.S. gets bogged down like Russia, it could pose a long-term shock to the U.S. economy; if it's a swift resolution, the impact will be minimal.
Oil prices surged briefly but remained restrained. The market seems to expect a quick resolution. 0 reply
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June 20, Friday
High-Level Voices:
Xi Jinping held a phone call with Vladimir Putin, focusing on exchanging views on the Middle East situation. Xi proposed four points: promoting a ceasefire is the top priority; ensuring civilian safety is of utmost importance; initiating dialogue and negotiations is the fundamental solution; the international community's efforts to promote peace are indispensable.
Overall Sentiment:
On Monday evening, Iranian state media hinted at a major event, leading markets to speculate about a possible large-scale missile launch. However, it seems the
"missile" hit the A-share market instead.
The median A-share stock fell 1.84%, and H-shares dropped 2%. The national team likely had no contingency plan and did not intervene, resulting in a market rout.
There has been a long-standing push to make the valuation of A-share companies listed in Hong Kong higher than their A-share counterparts. However, yesterday, even Haitong Securities, listed in Hong Kong, broke its issue price. 0 reply
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June 19, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
The Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no action.
Overall Sentiment:
Last night, hours before the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, Trump fiercely criticized Fed Chair Powell, calling him "foolish" and expressing doubt that the Fed would announce a rate cut. As expected, the Fed held rates steady.
Yesterday, A-shares and H-shares showed rare divergent trends, with real estate leading declines in both markets. However, A-shares' banking sector propped up the index, likely due to the Lujiazui Financial Forum being held in Shanghai. 0 reply
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