Weekend read from Arthur Hayes.

Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)

The salient points are his assumptions that:

1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level

Weekend read from Arthur Hayes.

Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)

The salient points are his assumptions that:

1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5

Unfortunately at his level these actions have a specific type of externality which gets to vote on your performance every 2 years