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logonaut.eth 🎩🍖↑
@logonaut.eth
🤔 I wonder if Iran could *sustainably* disrupt petroleum transport through the Strait of Hormuz by simultaneously building an alternative energy alliance that bypasses Gulf shipping entirely. Rather than simply blockading the strait and absorbing economic punishment, Iran would offer preferential extraction rights and pipeline deals to key allies (primarily China and Russia; maybe Pakistan) similar to the arrangements it had with Western powers prior to the 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup when PM Mossadegh led the charge to nationalize the Iranian oil industry. This creates a two-pronged strategy: while Western economies suffer from Gulf shipping disruption and oil price spikes, Iran maintains revenue streams through land-based energy partnerships with major powers who have strategic incentives to politically protect Iran’s actions. The approach transforms a desperate military gambit into calculated alliance-building, where Iran leverages its energy resources to fracture the international response rather than face it alone. In this scenario, Iran would use energy diplomacy to ensure its major-power allies benefit from the crisis rather than suffer from it, making them reluctant to support military intervention against Iranian actions in the Gulf. This assumes, though, that China and Russia would prioritize guaranteed energy access and higher global prices over maintaining the current international order, especially if offered direct stakes in Iranian energy infrastructure. But could Iran build sufficient alternative delivery capacity and political cover before economic or military pressures force their hand in the Gulf? Maybe already too late for such a gambit to have any chance of success?
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Purp🇵🇸
@purp
Iirc they've got a train route to China they are fixing to open
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