Ethereum

Unironically, I think most alt-L1s will become L2s

@celo showed the playbook:
– Halved inflation from 2% to 1%
– Reduced block times from 5s to 1s 
– Eliminated 300k+ lines of legacy code
– Fully integrated into Ethereum’s ecosystem, the largest dev community in crypto
– Carbon emission's cut in half (if you're into that)

It’s just a better model
https://x.com/hubkotl/status/1944463402916528562

In 2021, I wrote extensively on this topic. On paper, purely technically, it was a no-brainer - greater performance, interoperability, secure access to ethereum liquidity, security & decentralization, significantly lower inflation for economic sustainability, etc. etc. 

Since then, all major new chains have been L2s - from DAOs (Unichain) to crypto corporations (Coinbase, Kraken) to tradfi (Robinhood), with the sole exception of Hyperliquid. There have been some L1 > L2 like Celo as mentioned. However, over 4 years, most legacy L1s have remained L1s.

Potential reasons:
- Application demand growth has been a fraction of expectations. Most L1s have barely any activity and have no need for the greater performance or interoperability of L2s
- L2 & blob dev have slowed down since '22 potentially due to the above, with performance much lower than expected in '25
- Much of their token value is based on being an anti-ethereum cult
- The industry has pivoted to degeneracy, decentralization/security matter less now

Hyperliquid is built different. It shows that the future may not lie with universal L2 solutions, but with specialized blockchains tailored to specific tasks. When each validator becomes an oracle, a self-sustaining system is created, where network growth automatically increases security.