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Kiln
@kiln
🧵 Circle’s IPO is shaping up to be a key moment for the stablecoin sector. Priced at a discount to crypto and fintech peers, the offering raises important strategic and regulatory considerations ⤵️
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Kiln
@kiln
1/ Circle IPO valuation Circle plans to float shares at $24–26, valuing the company at $6.2–6.7B (fully diluted) or $5.2–5.8B (enterprise value). At 3–4x trailing revenue, this is a discount to Coinbase (8–9x) and payments giants like Visa/Mastercard (double digits).
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Kiln
@kiln
2/ Pricing strategy Management likely underpricing to secure a first-day pop and sustain it long-term. Regulatory tailwinds (US stablecoin laws) could boost USDC’s market share as demand grows for transparent, cash/T-bill-backed stablecoins.
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Kiln
@kiln
3/ Antitrust & M&A implications The IPO removes antitrust concerns from potential Coinbase deal talks. Regulators were unlikely to approve a merger combining the top US exchange and stablecoin. A last-minute bid is possible but unlikely post-roadshow.
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Kiln
@kiln
4/ Benefits of going publi Public listing enhances transparency, attracts institutional partners, and provides equity for strategic acquisitions—without the scrutiny of a Coinbase merger.
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Kiln
@kiln
5/ Long-term execution Public-market scrutiny may sharpen execution. Revenue will face pressure from Fed rate cuts, but growth can come from expanding USDC’s float, non-US banking rails, and added services (merchant settlement, cross-border payouts, treasury APIs).
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Kiln
@kiln
6/ Market Positioning The IPO sets a valuation benchmark for regulated stablecoin issuers, broadens institutional adoption, and strengthens Circle’s moat as demand for compliant digital dollars rises. Banks, fintechs, and Big Tech may increasingly rely on its infrastructure.
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