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Kiln
@kiln
🧵 Circle’s IPO is shaping up to be a key moment for the stablecoin sector. Priced at a discount to crypto and fintech peers, the offering raises important strategic and regulatory considerations ⤵️
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Kiln
@kiln
1/ Circle IPO valuation Circle plans to float shares at $24–26, valuing the company at $6.2–6.7B (fully diluted) or $5.2–5.8B (enterprise value). At 3–4x trailing revenue, this is a discount to Coinbase (8–9x) and payments giants like Visa/Mastercard (double digits).
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Kiln
@kiln
2/ Pricing strategy Management likely underpricing to secure a first-day pop and sustain it long-term. Regulatory tailwinds (US stablecoin laws) could boost USDC’s market share as demand grows for transparent, cash/T-bill-backed stablecoins.
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Kiln
@kiln
3/ Antitrust & M&A implications The IPO removes antitrust concerns from potential Coinbase deal talks. Regulators were unlikely to approve a merger combining the top US exchange and stablecoin. A last-minute bid is possible but unlikely post-roadshow.
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Kiln
@kiln
4/ Benefits of going publi Public listing enhances transparency, attracts institutional partners, and provides equity for strategic acquisitions—without the scrutiny of a Coinbase merger.
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Kiln
@kiln
5/ Long-term execution Public-market scrutiny may sharpen execution. Revenue will face pressure from Fed rate cuts, but growth can come from expanding USDC’s float, non-US banking rails, and added services (merchant settlement, cross-border payouts, treasury APIs).
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