An IBRIS opinion poll released earlier this week showed Poland's liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski virtually tied with Karol Nawrocki, the right-wing Euroskeptic rival backed by the Trump administration. The numbers were 45.7% to 44.9%.

But Polymarket odds show Trzaskowski cruising to victory in Sunday's second-round election.

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Obviously a prediction of outcome isn't the same thing as a measurement of current opinion, but striking all the same.