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should the pirates trade skenes at the deadline?
some overall chatter about this, so doing a quick breakdown on why the pirates should.
1. the pirates inept offense
the pirates rank bottom 5 in the league in many offensive categories like weighted on base average (woba) and lack impact bats in their farm system.
the only way the pirates can likely add offense is either free agency or through trades. as a small market team, competing to sign an impact bar is pretty much off the table, so that leaves one option-trades.
2. paul skenes is a top 5 cost controlled pitcher
skenes has dominated since entering the league and is in the 99th percentile of qualified starters in mlb.
he’s also still on his rookie contract that pays him league minimum and has another 3+ years before reaching free agency.
a generational talent at basement prices? teams will literally line up and trade their best prospects for him.
3. the likelihood of tommy john
skenes like all hard throwing, high spin rate pitchers is likely at higher risk of tommy john. while he hasn’t yet, trading him now is likely capturing peak value.
the team that trades for him may lose him for at least a year due to tommy john at some point in his career.
4. small market, small budget
while the pirates have signed some of their franchise players to long term deals, skenes will command way more than bryan reynolds franchise setting contract (8 years for $106.75m).
the pirates highest payroll is just under $100m. now consider that the highest paid pitchers sit around $35m-$42m a year. it’s also not inconceivable to believe skenes could command $50m+ given juan soto’s contract (using soto as a comp due to marketability, age, and skill).
it’s almost impossible for the pirates to commit $50m+ a year to a single player given they typically sit between $80m-$100m total team budget.
personally, i hope the pirates keep skenes a little longer but it’s likely a better baseball move to trade him for a massive package of high end prospects vs try to compete in the pirates current state. 4 replies
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