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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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JR ↑
@juli
IMO most in crypto are up to Connect their wallets to a Social Media & experiment, share stuff with Friends, send tokens, use apps & play games .. But it would help if the Social Media was interesting. farcaster is neither appealing to crypto Folks, nor outsiders, nor small Communities (niche tech chats, no Token Alpha except for farcaster tokens, no entertainment). My core assumption is different but GTM conclusion the same: Steps with Coinbase aren‘t wrong (but maybe early) but the platform & current users aren‘t good/fun/unique/simple/convenient/inviting enough to onboard newcomers (clusters) & retain them. (See Facebook strategy: Stuck with 1st exclusive bubble) Why? No one puts enough time into farcaster/channel/community growth. Compare to: Every influencer on Insta running a well- curated feed & doing collabs; every private group on telegram posting „good“ content, & advertising Via influencers; every crypto discord Server pays employees to post & mod (but only get inflows via twitter)
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