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@chaskin.eth
Bitcoin mining is already a duopoly, and it’s only getting worse. Economies of scale and shrinking rewards push everyone out except the top two. Soon, only they’ll decide what gets added to the Bitcoin chain. The rest will pivot. Ethereum is the endgame.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Spot on. People look at the year 2140 (end of mining) as a distant deadline that does not concern them, but that’s a distraction. The looming centralization and security budget crisis will not develop linearly until then. It will accelerate and snowball within the next 10 to 15 years. Nobody will want to be exit liquidity, so a loss of confidence can happen exponentially quickly. Whatever the solution that ends up being adopted — tail issuance, a switch to PoS, a wrapped token on Ethereum — the Bitcoin we know will look very different within that one generation timeframe
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Javier Galán
@javiergalan
That's very interesting scenario but BTC scarcity was supposed the axis to sustain it's value and the subsequent PoS based coins. Maybe you're suggesting that duopoly holders could dump in some particular moments to crash BTC and seed disbelief upon POW model?
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I’m suggesting that unaware hodlers may start selling their BTC (the token) once they better understand the looming security budget issue that makes Bitcoin (the network) vulnerable. The sell pressure may cascade quickly if the public opinion loses confidence in the resilience and sustainability of the network. The scarcity was one of the initial promises, and I think it can still be maintained. Scarcity is slightly orthogonal to PoW; you could technically avoid tail issuance and maintain scarcity by acknowledging that PoW is not long-term sustainable in the current design, and wrapping the token onto Ethereum, for instance.
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