ISIAAQ

@isiaaq

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Why hate Donald Trump? He's such a decent guy, has he ever done anything bad to you?

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Bellow Chart: Opened lower and trended down with volatility, but found support at the 5-day moving average. Short-term moving averages continue to trend strongly upward. Pre-market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: Despite the upcoming July 9 expiration of President Trump’s tariff suspension and the lack of meaningful progress in trade negotiations, U.S. equities continue to climb, approaching record highs. Market volatility has nearly vanished, marking a sharp contrast to how trade headlines used to trigger sharp market swings. The market’s calm is partly due to expectations that Trump will extend the tariff deadline, betting on a “Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO)” scenario. More importantly, Wall Street professionals believe that with the economy remaining healthy and U.S. companies seemingly able to manage trade policies, there’s no reason to go against the market’s strong momentum.

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Bellow Chart: Opened lower and trended down with volatility, but found support at the 5-day moving average. Short-term moving averages continue to trend strongly upward. Pre-market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: Despite the upcoming July 9 expiration of President Trump’s tariff suspension and the lack of meaningful progress in trade negotiations, U.S. equities continue to climb, approaching record highs. Market volatility has nearly vanished, marking a sharp contrast to how trade headlines used to trigger sharp market swings. The market’s calm is partly due to expectations that Trump will extend the tariff deadline, betting on a “Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO)” scenario. More importantly, Wall Street professionals believe that with the economy remaining healthy and U.S. companies seemingly able to manage trade policies, there’s no reason to go against the market’s strong momentum.

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The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.5, still in contraction territory, but early signs of improvement in production and new orders are popping up. Manufacturing sentiment isn’t worsening—market’s holding steady, no deeper bearish turn yet! Powell says we’d have cut rates without tariffs, leaning dovish while still data-driven. Markets are heating up on a September rate cut, and the bond market’s reacting big time!

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Today’s Market Recap The U.S. stock market kicked off the second half with some fund rotation—Dow Jones climbed, boosted by healthcare and traditional sector stocks, while S&P and Nasdaq saw a short-term pullback. Risk appetite’s still hanging tough! June JOLTS job openings hit 7.32 million, slightly below expectations, signaling steady but not robust employment. Quit and hire rates are sluggish, hinting at weakness but no sharp downturn yet!

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Today’s Market Recap The U.S. stock market kicked off the second half with some fund rotation—Dow Jones climbed, boosted by healthcare and traditional sector stocks, while S&P and Nasdaq saw a short-term pullback. Risk appetite’s still hanging tough! June JOLTS job openings hit 7.32 million, slightly below expectations, signaling steady but not robust employment. Quit and hire rates are sluggish, hinting at weakness but no sharp downturn yet!

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Post-Market Index Analysis, The Dow Jones broke through the upper end of its recent range, gradually absorbing upward resistance. The S&P 500 continued its strong bullish momentum, approaching record highs. The Nasdaq 100, led by tech stocks, remained strong and continued to post new highs.

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Post-Market Index Analysis, The Dow Jones broke through the upper end of its recent range, gradually absorbing upward resistance. The S&P 500 continued its strong bullish momentum, approaching record highs. The Nasdaq 100, led by tech stocks, remained strong and continued to post new highs.

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Geopolitical tensions eased briefly, with Israel and Iran maintaining a ceasefire. The White House also signaled a possible extension of the reciprocal tariff suspension, easing some policy pressure. Market attention now turns to Friday’s release of the PCE Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Fed. The results will directly impact whether a rate cut is on the table for July.

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Today’s Market Recap Boosted by gains in tech stocks, all three major indexes rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both approaching record highs. Nvidia hit another all-time high, lifting both the FANG+ and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. On the economic front, the final estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, signaling emerging economic pressure. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000 last week, but continued claims hit a record high, suggesting structural weakness in the labor market.

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Today’s Market Recap Boosted by gains in tech stocks, all three major indexes rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both approaching record highs. Nvidia hit another all-time high, lifting both the FANG+ and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. On the economic front, the final estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, signaling emerging economic pressure. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000 last week, but continued claims hit a record high, suggesting structural weakness in the labor market.

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Above Chart: Opened higher but pulled back intraday, showing signs of profit-taking after gains. However, the short-term moving averages continue to slope upward, indicating underlying bullish momentum remains. Pre-Market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: We currently estimate a 40% probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2025. This projection is largely driven by the escalation of tariffs, which could trigger a scenario of stagflation, a period marked by high inflation combined with sluggish economic growth, similar to what the U.S. experienced during the 1970s.

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Attention is now turning to Friday’s release of the key Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and comes on the heels of Powell’s testimony to Congress this week, where he reiterated the Fed’s patient stance on future rate decisions. Powell and other policymakers believe it’s prudent to wait and assess the broader impact of aggressive U.S. tariffs before making further moves.

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U.S. Stock Index Pre-Market Performance 🟢 Pre-Market Trading Outlook 🟢 As of the pre-market session, U.S. stock index futures are edging slightly higher, with the S&P 500 still hovering near all-time highs. According to reports, President Trump is considering naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this year, as he grows increasingly dissatisfied with the Fed’s cautious approach to policy decisions. Trump is eager to see the Fed follow the lead of many global central banks and cut rates more aggressively.

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U.S. Stock Index Pre-Market Performance 🟢 Pre-Market Trading Outlook 🟢 As of the pre-market session, U.S. stock index futures are edging slightly higher, with the S&P 500 still hovering near all-time highs. According to reports, President Trump is considering naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this year, as he grows increasingly dissatisfied with the Fed’s cautious approach to policy decisions. Trump is eager to see the Fed follow the lead of many global central banks and cut rates more aggressively.

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Above Chart: Opened higher but pulled back intraday, showing signs of profit-taking after gains. However, the short-term moving averages continue to slope upward, indicating underlying bullish momentum remains. Pre-Market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: We currently estimate a 40% probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2025. This projection is largely driven by the escalation of tariffs, which could trigger a scenario of stagflation, a period marked by high inflation combined with sluggish economic growth, similar to what the U.S. experienced during the 1970s.

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Our Institutions believe the key focus now shifts to this Friday’s core PCE inflation data. A lower than expected reading could further boost expectations for a July rate cut and help push indexes toward record highs. On the other hand, if inflation proves sticky, market volatility could rise. In the short term, it’s recommended to center trading strategies around tech and semiconductor stocks.

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Today’s Market Summary Today, U.S. stocks continued to fluctuate at elevated levels, driven by Fed Chair Powell’s ongoing wait and see stance, eased geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and strength in tech stocks. By index: the Dow slipped as industrials and cyclical stocks weighed on performance; the S&P 500 remained flat, reflecting a cautious mood; and the Nasdaq edged higher, supported by AI-related names like Nvidia and AMD. Semiconductors continued to lead, standing out as a bright spot in the market. Capital flows clearly favored growth stocks, with investors remaining highly sensitive to policy shifts and inflation data.

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Pre-Market Trading Outlook • U.S. stock index futures are broadly lower in pre-market trading Friday, setting up for a negative weekly close. • Investors remain focused on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has now entered its second week. • The White House stated that President Trump will make a decision on the situation within two weeks. • European foreign ministers are expected to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to ease regional tensions.

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Pre-Market Trading Outlook • U.S. stock index futures are broadly lower in pre-market trading Friday, setting up for a negative weekly close. • Investors remain focused on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has now entered its second week. • The White House stated that President Trump will make a decision on the situation within two weeks. • European foreign ministers are expected to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to ease regional tensions.

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