ISIAAQ

@isiaaq

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Bellow Chart: Opened lower and trended down with volatility, but found support at the 5-day moving average. Short-term moving averages continue to trend strongly upward. Pre-market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: Despite the upcoming July 9 expiration of President Trump’s tariff suspension and the lack of meaningful progress in trade negotiations, U.S. equities continue to climb, approaching record highs. Market volatility has nearly vanished, marking a sharp contrast to how trade headlines used to trigger sharp market swings. The market’s calm is partly due to expectations that Trump will extend the tariff deadline, betting on a “Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO)” scenario. More importantly, Wall Street professionals believe that with the economy remaining healthy and U.S. companies seemingly able to manage trade policies, there’s no reason to go against the market’s strong momentum.

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Today’s Market Recap The U.S. stock market kicked off the second half with some fund rotation—Dow Jones climbed, boosted by healthcare and traditional sector stocks, while S&P and Nasdaq saw a short-term pullback. Risk appetite’s still hanging tough! June JOLTS job openings hit 7.32 million, slightly below expectations, signaling steady but not robust employment. Quit and hire rates are sluggish, hinting at weakness but no sharp downturn yet!

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Post-Market Index Analysis, The Dow Jones broke through the upper end of its recent range, gradually absorbing upward resistance. The S&P 500 continued its strong bullish momentum, approaching record highs. The Nasdaq 100, led by tech stocks, remained strong and continued to post new highs.

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Today’s Market Recap Boosted by gains in tech stocks, all three major indexes rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both approaching record highs. Nvidia hit another all-time high, lifting both the FANG+ and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. On the economic front, the final estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, signaling emerging economic pressure. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000 last week, but continued claims hit a record high, suggesting structural weakness in the labor market.

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U.S. Stock Index Pre-Market Performance 🟢 Pre-Market Trading Outlook 🟢 As of the pre-market session, U.S. stock index futures are edging slightly higher, with the S&P 500 still hovering near all-time highs. According to reports, President Trump is considering naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this year, as he grows increasingly dissatisfied with the Fed’s cautious approach to policy decisions. Trump is eager to see the Fed follow the lead of many global central banks and cut rates more aggressively.

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Above Chart: Opened higher but pulled back intraday, showing signs of profit-taking after gains. However, the short-term moving averages continue to slope upward, indicating underlying bullish momentum remains. Pre-Market Analysis Here’s what our institution is seeing: We currently estimate a 40% probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2025. This projection is largely driven by the escalation of tariffs, which could trigger a scenario of stagflation, a period marked by high inflation combined with sluggish economic growth, similar to what the U.S. experienced during the 1970s.

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Today’s Market Summary Today, U.S. stocks continued to fluctuate at elevated levels, driven by Fed Chair Powell’s ongoing wait and see stance, eased geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and strength in tech stocks. By index: the Dow slipped as industrials and cyclical stocks weighed on performance; the S&P 500 remained flat, reflecting a cautious mood; and the Nasdaq edged higher, supported by AI-related names like Nvidia and AMD. Semiconductors continued to lead, standing out as a bright spot in the market. Capital flows clearly favored growth stocks, with investors remaining highly sensitive to policy shifts and inflation data.

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Pre-Market Trading Outlook • U.S. stock index futures are broadly lower in pre-market trading Friday, setting up for a negative weekly close. • Investors remain focused on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has now entered its second week. • The White House stated that President Trump will make a decision on the situation within two weeks. • European foreign ministers are expected to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to ease regional tensions.

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The 3 Tricks of Institutional Traders: Push prices up to attract retail investors Sell off gradually at the top Trigger FOMO to complete their exit. How to avoid getting trapped? ✅ Track 13F filings ✅ Read the charts ✅ Never chase the highs That wraps up today’s session! Thanks for joining, will see you soon!

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Current performance of index futures

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Data Focus • As investors brace for this week’s U.S. inflation data release, some market participants are shifting their outlook on tariffs and the future direction of major asset classes. • Regardless of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) results set to be released Wednesday, equities may continue to rise despite lingering inflation uncertainties, a stark contrast to previous expectations. • This shift in sentiment is largely due to the slower-than-expected impact of tariffs on final goods prices, which may take another three months to fully show up.

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Chart above: Opened higher but pulled back after volatility. The uptrend continues, though signs of upward momentum stalling have started to appear.

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Current US Stock Index Performance in Pre-market

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Data Focus Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing survey came in unexpectedly negative, reversing the recent trend of strong U.S. data. The export index dropped to its lowest level in five years, possibly signaling that retaliatory measures are starting to take effect. This adds further pressure to the entire manufacturing sector, which is already weighed down by trade policy uncertainty and weakening consumer demand.

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Chart below: Opened lower but climbed higher, reclaiming support at the 5-day moving average and rallying back to the top of the trading range!

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Chart above: Gapped up and extended higher, breaking well above the previous high, with short-term moving averages showing strong upward momentum.

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Intraday Sector & Stock Analysis, Rising Geopolitical Uncertainty Sends Major Indexes Lower, U.S. stocks, Treasury yields, and the dollar all moved lower on Monday after President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The announcement rattled market sentiment and intensified global trade tensions, raising investor concerns over the economic outlook. Oil prices climbed on supply worries, highlighting the widening divide between bullish and bearish market forces under increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

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Data Focus Concerns over the economic outlook may weigh on the major indexes this week, with investors closely monitoring a series of upcoming reports that could offer insight into how tariffs are impacting the U.S. economy. The key focus will be Friday’s release of the May nonfarm payrolls report. As for tonight, attention turns to several U.S. economic indicators, particularly the ISM PMI data, which could provide fresh signals on inflation trends.

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Chart above: the market opened lower and moved sideways, attempting to fill the gap. The pullback toward the 19,000 level shows signs of support!

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Chart above (EVRG): Bottoming reversal pattern in play, with monthly moving average breaking above the quarterly average, followed by a consolidation phase as the stock builds momentum

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