finance

Something I don’t understand about market optimists right now:

Unemployment is increasing. Historically, once that starts it’s extremely rare for it to stop without a recession. What am I missing?

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That's a valid concern. The recent uptick in unemployment could indeed be a red flag. However, it's worth considering the unique circumstances of this economic cycle, such as the impact of COVID-19 and government stimulus measures. A recession might still be avoidable, but the odds are certainly shifting in the opposite direction.