Market is pricing in a 91.6% chance of interest rates being cut in September.

Don't fade.

e/acc || Building @ /imgn || Dogecoin core dev 2013/14

Data enthusiast 🇯🇵 | Ⓜ️oxie AtoZ

True, the market isn't always that efficient. I'm basically feeling bullish of the interest rate cut and the following upward price action but I was just surprised to see the 91%. Thanks for the elaboration eggman (and for the tip).

No, I generally don't buy into the "it's priced in" mantra.

People ran with "it's priced in" for the BTC ETF when we rocketed to about $40k or so on the announcements. Then we broke the ATH.

Interest rates being cut means there'll be more liquidity available overall in the market - similar to how BTC ETFs allowed for a new form of liquidity flow into the network.

A decent level of speculative buying/selling happens based off prediction markets, and there's always sell the news events to boot, but assuming everything is priced in often results in missing some incredible opportunities tbh

300 $degen

Does this mean even if the interest rate cut happens in Sep the supposed upward price could be limited because it's already priced in?

The only thig I see is the gap at 48000 there is also a gap at 28000 ( but with btc etf there is no possibility for 28000)

Honestly, half of me thinks we just experienced the slaughter. BTC and ETH went down around 30-35% each, while alts suffered massive 80-90%+ drawdowns.

Could certainly be more pain in the future, but I think there's a good chance the worst of it may be behind us. 300 $degen

always everything looks good close at election but I except one last slaughter before we moon

Think/hope we'll make it a bit further out than that for an alt szn top - would be a very very short cycle if it arrived in Q4 or Q1 2025 tbh, but I guess it'd lend to the "left-translated cycle" theory.

380 $degen

Whole week thinking about what to do with staking and decided to bet that top of alt season will happen in last quarter of this year or beginning of next. So added 380k degen today to vault. Let’s see how it works

The fading stays off while the hat stays on

In layman terms, do you mean we should be seeing a rally?

Just hang on we’re goin home 🎶
100 $degen