Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I have no horse in this race, but will be an interesting economic experiment if these proposed tax policies get implemented. Both corporations and HNWI are sensitive to increases in marginal tax rates. And while most won't move, even a small % that do move to Florida or Connecticut will have a big impact on the budget. Most knowledge work is not rooted in a physical place, e.g. the NYSE floor doesn't matter, so physical space is more fungible both across state lines and remote work more generally. What is not easily measurable is future businesses that get started elsewhere. The next hedge fund—which pays taxes and spends a lot of money on services in the city—ends up in another state. San Francisco has tried this with Prop C and Prop L and both are underperforming forecasts (not to mention the impact on all the local businesses with fewer workers in office buildings downtown).
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Ok, Jose
@okjose
I think SF's a shaky yardstick here. Half a billion of Prop C cash was frozen in litigation for two years, the drop in Prop C rev happened in FY 2021 so it's impossible to tell if it was due to 'protest' relocations or just pandemic fallout, and SF's tax base is over-concentrated in tech. NYC's tax base is way more diversified and path-dependent; for finance world, proximity to exchanges, regulators, and clients still matters. I wouldn't bet on a significant amount of flight, the same way I wouldn't expect precisely what Mamdani is pitching now to get implemented without being ratcheted down a bit to make it feasible.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
> Half a billion of Prop C cash was frozen in litigation for two years, the drop in Prop C rev happened in FY 2021 so it's impossible to tell if it was due to 'protest' relocations or just pandemic fallout, and SF's tax base is over-concentrated in tech. The highest GMV businesses under Prop C -- Square, Stripe, Coinbase -- all moved their HQ as a result.
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