Where are we in the crypto cycle?
Warning: astrology
1. BTC and ETH at / near ATH. ETH wealth effect lifting many EVM assets. Stock market also at ATH.
2. No hard data, but my gut (from multiple cycles at the biggest retail onramp) says majority of inflows are from ETFs, treasury cos, and institutions—not new onchain consumers.
3. Economy is wonky: weak jobs, inflation signs (today’s PPI), yet market expects a September rate cut. Rate cut is good for risk assets, bad for stablecoin revenue.
4. IPOs are back: Circle, Bullish, and Figma (non-crypto) all saw strong demand. Expect more crypto and non-crypto filings in the next 6 months if markets stay strong.
5. Stablecoin rules are here (hence the new stablecoin L1s), but no clarity yet for network tokens. The CLARITY Act is moving through Congress and likely to pass this fall. Market / entrepreneurs will need 6–12 months to absorb what new GTM models it enables.
6. Where are we in the cycle, though? No idea. Probabilistically: a barbell -- either early cycle (hurray!) or final innings.
7. What this means for you:
a. Active traders – No advice. Too many variables, always a black swan risk. Godspeed.
b. Builders seeking consumers – Nothing’s changed yet. Avoid the noise the best you can, find 10 / 100 / 1000 users who love your product, and iterate before the big consumer wave arrives (tbd on timing!).
c. US-based teams thinking tokens – pay attention to the CLARITY Act. Feed the draft (and final) text into tools like NotebookLM to explore implications. 15 replies
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