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Icetoad π π© π
@icetoad.eth
I previously said during January/February that there was a 50/50 chance the private sector was contracting in Q1. Turns out it was indeed contracting. Come July if Q2 numbers come out and indicate another contraction then the classic definition of a recession will have been met. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-contracts-at-03-rate-in-q1-first-pullback-in-three-years-123544165.html
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@degencummunist.eth
Whereβs your polymarket/ponder poll???π€¨
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Icetoad π π© π
@icetoad.eth
Was there one?
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@degencummunist.eth
Found one But I donβt really* trust poly market, maybe I could be convinced if someone explained the governance aspect https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025/us-recession-in-2025?tid=1746041461530
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Icetoad π π© π
@icetoad.eth
This probably goes by the government definition of recession, not the classic economics definition
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@degencummunist.eth
Whatβs the govβs definition? Or do you mean they* (the gov) has to declare thereβs a recession?
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Icetoad π π© π
@icetoad.eth
Eight economists who serve on the Business Cycle Dating Committee which is part of the National Bureau of Economic Research. It isn't part of the federal government, but they determine the government's call. A "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.β They take into account real income, payroll employment, consumer spending, industrial production, and GDP when making a determination.
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