Ethereum

Ethereum App Builders X Space #10: Prediction Markets

What they are, why they matter, and how projects like Butter, Gnosis Chain, Kleros, Futarchy, and Robin Hanson himself think about the future of info-finance.

https://x.com/i/spaces/1PlJQMaWNWVJE  
🧵 0/19

/ethereum foundation | opinions are my own but more than likely they come from Vitalik's blog paragraph.xyz/@chaskin

🧵 1/19 – Prediction Markets 101

Prediction markets let you trade on future events. Price = crowd-estimated probability.

Two types:
– Simple betting (elections, sports)
– Conditional (“futarchy”): bet on policy outcomes

The latter could transform governance.

🧵 4/19 – Liquidity bottleneck

A recurring challenge: thin liquidity.

Gabriel Fior pointed out that AI agents might help:

“For an agent, liquidity doesn’t matter as much. It can operate at scale, analyze many markets in parallel, and improve depth.”

🧵 3/19 – Futarchy’s promise

Hanson emphasized that conditional prediction markets are where the real value lies:

Markets tied directly to decision-making could help orgs choose better paths.

But politics, incentives, and adoption hurdles persist.

🧵 2/19 – Robin Hanson’s take

Robin Hanson helped kickstart this entire field. He reminded us:

"Prediction markets have always promised better decisions. But adoption has been slow — still early days. Most experiments so far ≈ simple betting."