Geopolitics

“Lukashenko seeks to exploit NATO and Russia’s mutual fear of war to convince the West to support his bid for greater independence from Moscow. Yet, with Russia controlling Belarus’s economy, true autonomy remains out of reach, and Putin continues to use Belarusian territory for his military aims as he pleases”

“Lukashenko seeks to exploit NATO and Russia’s mutual fear of war to convince the West to support his bid for greater independence from Moscow. Yet, with Russia controlling Belarus’s economy, true autonomy remains out of reach, and Putin continues to use Belarusian territory for his military aims as he pleases”
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2616242/lukashenko-s-balancing-act-does-he-have-something-to-offer-both-the-west-and-putin

And he's clearly not very good at making friends

Lukashenko is in a difficult situation. He has lost the support of the population. This was clearly visible in 2020, when his regime was saved by his special forces. Most likely, there were Russians among them or at the very least, they were prepared to step in. I’m more than sure that in 2020, Putin told him something like: “Get things under control, Sasha, or we’ll do it for you.”

I think as Russia continues to weaken, the West might cleverly try to pull him to their side by offering security guarantees.

Ultimately, he has only himself to blame. He should have set a course toward Europe back in the 1990s, while the window of opportunity was still open. He trapped himself and his country.  In fact, his fate and the fate of Belarus now depends on the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“I sincerely believe Lukashenko wants to be more independent of Russia. He knows how brutal Russia is and why it’s dangerous. But at the same time, he does not trust the West at all and knows any concessions would weaken his regime. (...) He can release prisoners, but that’s probably all he can do”