Philosophy

If I predict rain tomorrow based on satellite and radar imagery showing a cold front forming, and it does rain, I’m right.

If I predict rain because I saw a black cat walk under a ladder, and it rains, am I right (but for the wrong reasons) or am I just wrong?

Can one ever be right for the wrong reasons?

Aviator, diver, Etherean, nexialist, PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

21. hacking.
previously @spire, intern Nethermind, epns.io

also related to your airplane example pg once pointed out how people who "predict" that a company will fail are very often correct but they say so for every company and moonshots by design are hard to succeed at; I wouldn't want to follow or be around such people (the predictooors)

yeah absolutely
ig that's why deutsche gives so much emphasis on explanations

That’s my view as well, and yet it’s difficult in practice to tell people that they were not “right” even though they correctly predicted an outcome, because their reasoning was flawed or provably unrelated to the determining factors of the outcome. We see this all the time among influencooors in crypto for ex

Was it Alan Watts who said that the future is not explained by the past? That it is, indeed, the reverse.