Amol
@0xamol
So where to next? I fundamentally believe that if we are creating a global fiasco and a trade embargo with China, we go lower. In addition, if we believe Trump is earnest and we are shifting from a US-centric hegemony that sent debt/dollars to the world and we have to toward manufacturing - this is a total reshaping of our entire economy. I'd call for a 40-50% pullback in SPX and a massive drawdown/winter in crypto as well.
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Amol
@0xamol
What are some drivers that can turn this around? - Trump reverses stance on Tariffs completely - Fed cuts rates aggressively
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Amol
@0xamol
re: Trump reverses stance on Tariffs completely I believe the damage is already done in sentiment in both markets and consumers economic / recession forecasts
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Amol
@0xamol
fwiw - I have a soft-spot for middle of America and blue-collar workers. My Dad has been a blue collar worker all his life. I've seen how hard times our family or his friends' families faced in the last 15-20 years. if we're really going through with Trump's plan of reshoring manufacturing + "Main street's turn", we better try to figure out which metrics to use to ensure we're on the right track.
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Amol
@0xamol
The inner capitalism in me, however, says American corporations and global path has been set already for what the average American worker does/does not want to do. We are the best technologists, innovators, structured societies of democracy and order. What we are not: manufacturing agents, manual labor supply, cheap or rigorous hours in factory work, deep hands-on skill work. There is nothing wrong with this trade-off. However, I do wish more of America gets the benefit from the success and wealth creation. This part I fully agree with Trump/Bessent.
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Amol
@0xamol
this thread was more of a riff of my thoughts on markets, global/market dynamics and me just wanting to stake my case that: I believe we have fundamentally entered a bear market. One which is self-inflicted. But I don't think you shake out the global distrust in what's transpired over the past few weeks with just a back-tracking. We've now fully committed to this path. There's no going back, imo. Because going back effectively means we've accelerated the process of China & the world being less dependent on US, dollars, debt, etc. Going forward means, we try to find a middle ground and push our weight & power to at least drive reasonable outcomes for our middle-class whilst still maintaining trust and drawing capital to US equities.
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