So where to next?

I fundamentally believe that if we are creating a global fiasco and a trade embargo with China, we go lower. In addition, if we believe Trump is earnest and we are shifting from a US-centric hegemony that sent debt/dollars to the world and we have to toward manufacturing - this is a total reshaping of our entire economy.

I'd call for a 40-50% pullback in SPX and a massive drawdown/winter in crypto as well.

What are some drivers that can turn this around? 
- Trump reverses stance on Tariffs completely
- Fed cuts rates aggressively

re: Trump reverses stance on Tariffs completely

I believe the damage is already done in sentiment in both markets and consumers economic / recession forecasts

The inner capitalism in me, however, says American corporations and global path has been set already for what the average American worker does/does not want to do. 

We are the best technologists, innovators, structured societies of democracy and order. What we are not: manufacturing agents, manual labor supply, cheap or rigorous hours in factory work, deep hands-on skill work. 

There is nothing wrong with this trade-off. However, I do wish more of America gets the benefit from the success and wealth creation. This part I fully agree with Trump/Bessent.

this thread was more of a riff of my thoughts on markets, global/market dynamics and me just wanting to stake my case that:

I believe we have fundamentally entered a bear market. One which is self-inflicted. But I don't think you shake out the global distrust in what's transpired over the past few weeks with just a back-tracking. We've now fully committed to this path. There's no going back, imo. 

Because going back effectively means we've accelerated the process of China & the world being less dependent on US, dollars, debt, etc. 

Going forward means, we try to find a middle ground and push our weight & power to at least drive reasonable outcomes for our middle-class whilst still maintaining trust and drawing capital to US equities.

thanks for listening to me riff.

p.s I actually think what is going to be MOST bullish out of all this is BTC (country agnostic currency) + crypto technology plays which are global and now having wider acceptance from global governments.

I am super excited for the next 5 years!

fwiw - I have a soft-spot for middle of America and blue-collar workers. My Dad has been a blue collar worker all his life. I've seen how hard times our family or his friends' families faced in the last 15-20 years.

if we're really going through with Trump's plan of reshoring manufacturing + "Main street's turn", we better try to figure out which metrics to use to ensure we're on the right track.

Populace is goldfish. Supply getting worked through. Pivot window still open. American consumer still pocket aces in trade. 

Fire Navarro. Change course. Even keep 10%.