@fehrsam
Will stablecoins become the world's largest owners of US Treasuries?
💵
It seems possible that crypto stablecoins become the largest holders of US Treasuries in the world. Putting up $1000 for the one layer deeper analysis to support or debunk that thesis.
@bountybot
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@fehrsam
Thesis:
- Stablecoins $150bn market cap
- Probably mostly held in Treasuries
- ~#16 on list of US Treasury holders today
- Largest holders today: Japan $1.1tn, China $770bn (and declining)
- Stablecoins will 10x in market cap in ~10 yrs
- This could make stablecoin issuers one of largest global holders of Treasuries
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@idanlevin
Internet memes spreads in the speed of light
US government wants to maintain USD dominance. Best strategy: stablecoins
Conclusion: stables will spread over the internet and capture all US treasuries in the world
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@nor
Ooh, great bounty.
Created a negation game for it too
https://negationgame.com/?ids=0x8b760d0cf99f7d16962a17ecc3f1757fca1176bd
@bountybot add $20 USDC
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@wmougayar
Why single out US Treasuries?
I think the trend is toward a diversified basket of cash equivalent assets to back stablecoins.
Related thesis would be that Stablecoins will penetrate a diversified set of assets, so pick a range of low-risk asset classes & predict respective % Stablecoin ownership.
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@michaellwy
Here's my submission:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xdnsVk-Q0h2Vrc_Ggaisqozr9vB1yMB8/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=101708739575855739206&rtpof=true&sd=true
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@jeremybatchelder
Here’s my submission - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15sxp6czHBSuJzfP3jcgp89pMo2VmzSr3ypXXkjGCxs8/edit?usp=sharing
I think it’s important to clarify in the original post that 16th largest treasury holder should be in comparison to sovereign entities and not the federal reserve system, mutual funds, etc
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@nic
I think they can catch all nations other than Japan (1T), China (769b), and the UK (693b) within a year or two. Luxembourg is fourth at 345b and that's totally reachable. In terms of MMMFs, Fidelity is the largest at 1.3t and growing, followed by JPM (700b) and Vanguard (600b)
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@orkun
Here are my thoughts on the question:
TLDR;
Will stablecoins become the Largest holder of USTs? I doubt it!
Will they be a significant player? Abso-frigging-lutely.
Full analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tnylGbQQVnijUoiPtKH2KR-3SxRmXi-5tNnjvKTNIcI/edit?usp=sharing
cc @parabol @emre /parabol
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@ericnoxon
Here is my submission 👇
A brief on the tenfold increase in stablecoin ownership of U.S. Treasuries coming in the next decade.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/11x6iJptRQRDeQUFJxFCFPOvURPhgQBl8bAOC-ipTDM8/edit
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@paulx
Posting my submission and explainer thread here: https://warpcast.com/paulx/0x0645138f
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@kanchan
Stablecoins will have to beat the Federal Reserve to be the largest holders of Treasuries. I don't think that's veyr likely given the size and scope of the Federal Reserve.
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