@monteluna
I actually believe at this point I was totally wrong, and most defi protocols are completely useless because they are way too large, rather than being an ossified system that is as simple as possible.
- You get to deposit into a system that earns only a small multiple of yield compared to the short term treasury rate, and over a year you're diluted so much your net in dollars is likely worse than just buying bills. If the protocol is hacked you get zero so you're generally negative EV.
- The hacks are awful. Most of these DeFi teams promote that they hire risk management, but they're generally kids with no experience. Also, pretty much all the risk models cannot account for some toxic asset outside of the companies boundaries being hacked, which can drain assets to zero. The statistical models simply cannot account for that, because if it did it would say the liquidity pools can't be invested.
- To balance the risks, every team essentially needs to include third party tooling that increases the risk surface area and reduces decentralization. Whitelisted tokens. UI IP/VPN blocks. User profiling. This plus odd integrations like intent based swaps only adds to complexity and makes the system's failure points harder to reason about. When there's a failure it's almost impossible to traceback where and how the failure happened, if it wasn't just pure mishandling of keys and loss of funds due to a hack.
- Executives and strategy who are in business development and scaling become a liability. When your protocol is growing, you're meeting foreign agents in different countries with no accountability. Even if you trust external actors, there are plenty of cases of internal actors engaging in financial crimes. Front-running and trading with private information is rampant. Almost all major protocols at this point have had cases of this, which also is bizarre considering in traditional finance shops, there are internal firewalls and regulations where certain people *cannot* have this information. I've personally seen actors get caught insider trading and they just change their twitter profile, and get a new job somewhere else with a team in a different country.
- General workers for protocols work on a system for 2 years, vesting cliff reached, then they move to a new system. It's very clear who's successful and who's not, because most of these workers have pivoted from delivering real products to just being bought and sold based on their twitter followers. They have a graveyard of projects they previously worked on, but always seem to be on the next hype project. They shill for 2 years, have limited real impact, then vestingcliffreached.jpeg. New actors never get selected into these projects and we just see the same faces making the 15th flavor of LP, perps, or prediction market. The general engineering and finance people never get the opportunity, but the token just pumps and dumps.
- The liquidity and general products are usually junk. At best, most of the teams focus on attracting liquidity and investors. In general we see most new products cannot get over $10M in deposits. Most of the growth is driven by trying to be attached to a large liquidity fund, which just makes the system a worse version of an ETF. Mechanically, most defi protocols are just a mix of liquidity or leverage. Liquidity is generally "take these tokens and make a worst of two wrapper" of various staking tokens paired with native tokens. Leverage is generally "how can we engineer a system that allows for 100x leverage" which introduces its own risks since current research shows you cannot have leverage, fair execution, and the protocol generate returns (Chitra's research).
At this point I'm generally bearish defi.
The tech works, but the majority of products are copying a number old defi systems but with more complexity and more liability. There really are only a few novel products in the defi summer class that everyone is copying on, but each is mostly copying them in the worst way, and those existing products are becoming more and more complex to try and attract tradfi funds since crypto users have exhausted all their money. The current system effectively only can attract gambling, and tradfi funds, which creates these complex extractive products. Corposlop and gamblefi.
I hope some of the newer defi protocols generally are *simpler* and we have more crypto native systems instead of the current crop, but at this rate the current crop is being reaped at their own demise.
https://forum.balancer.fi/t/on-the-future-of-balancer-shutting-down-balancer-labs-supporting-the-path-forward/7002