For people interested, this is probably the earliest example I can think of relating to prediction markets being used for bad. Timothy May explicitly wrote about this in 1994 when talking about cryptoanarchist theories around digital cash. My problem with the new kids in crypto is they wake up and believe they somehow "discovered" these issues with this technology after doing zero research or reading. The reality is everyone has already had this discussion and form a useful model, like a cost benefit analysis. Problems with bad parts of prediction markets have been pointed out literally for over 2 decades. What people who *like* prediction markets cite is: First if someone wants to kill someone they have plenty of tools, a prediction market doesn't really change this. Second, in the writings of @vitalik.eth and people who came up with TruthCoin and Augur, the original prediction markets, people believe markets of verifiable truth will have more positive benefit than the negatives, especially in an AI world. https://cdn.nakamotoinstitute.org/docs/cyphernomicon.txt

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This is the retail you're trying to sell decentralization to by the way. https://x.com/RealLTCRicBosi/status/2002288916817392093

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Love the Framework guys. A couple of opinions and predictions surprised me a lot. Bearish information markets is ngmi. I truly believe that primitives like prediction markets are culture defining just like Hollywood was once upon a time. The flow of attention and value is part of the media phenomenon at large, and we will accelerate that whole thing in a world that becomes ever more digital. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLTQL-_PM68

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If you were airdropped $10k usd and had to invest it(couldn’t withdraw for a year) What would you allocate that 10k towards?

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"What we’ve been calling “the crypto industry” looks less like a general-purpose technology ecosystem and more like a very liquid MMO." Excellent article and insights, although it feels like it was substantially written by AI (has the voice of Gemini 3 Pro IMO).

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The ultimate Cold Wallet https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/storage/sphotonix-pushes-5d-glass-storage-toward-data-center-pilots

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IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - We are temporarily pausing Alt Season to begin Tax Harvesting Season. Alt Season will resume in 2026.

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Somehow we have to square the circle if Web3 is dead assuming we already figured out how to build "social networks" and there won't be any more of those, while at the same time arguing that there will always be more L1s to dilute the smart contract blockchain market. So, which way western man? 🤡 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUQkdsPMv3A

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Here's some meta thoughts about cycle narratives: 2017: Decentralized everything & ICOs. 2021: DeFi, NFTs & ownership economy 2025: Institutionals, RWA & stablecoins I've seen many people getting into blockchain over the past 8 years, but a lot of them came from TradFi: Traders, bankers, PE, fund managers, VCs... This cycle is Finance's people's cycle, and Tarun from @gauntlet seems to be happy about it, dropping a victory tagline, "I think this is the end of Web3", referring here to the ownership economy. Personally, I don't think it is. The way I see it, this cycle is the real cycle that matters. I don't like it, because I don't come from a banking/institutional background, so I find it quite boring, but Blockchain penetrating every corner of tradfi is a big deal. When every bank & institutionals run on blockchain rails, when government have clear pro-crypto regulations (whats unfolding now in the US), it will give a seal of approval to crypto and give confidence to builders to start using blockchain even more. Then, virtually, every new product will be a web3 product, because web2 will be a thing of the past. Right now "Web3" is still a marketing argument, because both web2 & web3 co-exist, but when web3 eats web2's cake, we won't even need to call it web3 anymore. It'll just be the default internet.

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They are launching BNPL perpetual options on Hyperliquid powered by KlarnaKash and you're bearish anon?

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Yikes.

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Crypto is finally entering its “I’m not explaining this again” era. If you get it, you get it. If you don’t… there’s always ETFs.

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This is the weirdest crypto mini-bear ever... in past cycles, we had existential threats (FTX, regulators, etc.), but this time, the global financial system is actively and aggressively integrating the tech and tokens regs are clearing up and the biggest money managers in the world are telling their clients they need a few pts of crypto exposure not sure when it's going to happen, or what the trigger will be (possibly the Clarity Act), but crypto's return is going to be violent

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I actually find it weird that Kalshi is getting a lot of traction in the crypto space. People seem to have memory holed how their founder was working with SBF and in direct communication with Gensler's staff to try and label themselves as a "U.S. registered" prediction market, while helping to commit lawfare against @polymarket. I don't think I would ever use them, on general principle.

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incredible to see top folks at solana and base going at each other publicly in the worst way possible instead of discussing it like respectful adults in dms

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