"Concrete benefits of making predictions"

(h/t @six for getting me thinking about how to make better predictions)

"Concrete benefits of making predictions"

(h/t @six for getting me thinking about how to make better predictions)

https://fatebook.io/blog/concrete-benefits-of-making-predictions

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You can't control the outcome of a prediction, but you have direct agency over the result of a decision

A "successful prediction" is measured by how close your prediction was to reality, but a "successful decision" is measured by how well your choice was aligned with your goal

Some thoughts:

Predictions are probability assignments, whereas decisions are action commitments

Predictions can be passive, but decisions require commitment

Predictions inform decisions, but decisions create reality (the best forecasters often make poor decision-makers bc they hesitate to act)

Decisions have skin in the game; predictions don’t

how do you think making predictions is any different than making decisions?