WAR CAN BE BULLISH FOR COMMODITIES AS CURRENCY DEVALUATION LIQUIDITY INCREASE.
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I offer my deepest apologies to the Iranian people, whose lives and sovereignty are again treated as collateral in America's geopolitical games. It's disturbing to see Western powers manipulate narratives and fabricate threats to push the world toward war. An empire in decline wages conflict to cling to fading dominance, sacrificing peace and lives for an illusion of control, deepening global distrust and causing immense suffering.

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As we enter the roughest chapter of the US Big Debt Cycle, we have finally as an industry begun to land with traditional finance. Bitcoin is a legitimate financial asset & Ethereum nears escape velocity as JP Morgan among other players begin to build their own infrastructure on our lanes. However, the invasion of Iran seems inevitable. I do not wish to see these United States begin an active campaign in the Middle East, but it is not up to me but rather the powers that be — regardless, I have composed a theory of how things could go.

It is no secret that war requires currency debasement and can set off significant inflation as supply lines are threatened. I have taken a look at a few metrics to analyze Operation Iraqi Freedom and it’s effects on global markets. 

DXY

The Dollar Strength Index was already declining heading into Operation Iraqi Freedom and the decline increased only to catch a bottom heading into the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 - 2008. I expect similar to occur, however this will be exacerbated since the US Debt to GDP has risen significantly since 2003. 

Gold

Gold is the only commodity that I can look at to compare with bitcoin or ether because it is a heavily financial asset with far less industrial demand than oil. Gold also had the luck of launching exchange traded funds in March of 2003 and also launched in the US in March of 2004. As Dollar debasement increased to fund the war, so to did the price of gold. Gold also caught a second wind as dollar debasement accelerated into the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 - 2008, only abating when markets regained trust following significant increases in liquidity in 2011 - 2013. 

SP500

The SP500 increased significantly into the dollar debasement of the Iraqi War of 2003 nearly doubling, only declining due to the poorly regulated Collateralized Debt Obligation Market, which created a deleveraging event so large it brought about the Great Recession. 

My Thoughts

I am of the belief that there is a great moment ahead for digital assets because of Liberation Day & Mr. Trump’s tariff regime. Mr. Trump has killed the US Treasury as a store of value and that will not be reversed at any point in the future, because a flaw in a fortress brings about the thought of more flaws — the thought is more deleterious than the flaw. US Deficits are supposed to be in excess of 6% - 8% of GDP for the foreseeable future, following tax cuts among other large projects. If the war is to be taken on the US will likely double its deficits during the war and deplete its arsenal. A blunder in the war would also be costly to the dollar as the threat of violence is apart of assurances provided by the US Hegemony. 

Considering our positioning entering the war, it is very likely that the resulting liquidity necessary to calm markets is a high percentage of M1 Money than previously needed in 2003. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve, prior to 2002, had kept a stable balance sheet and that changed just prior to the war. Entering the war, the balance sheet was an above historical average 5.8% of GDP, but it is near 24.6% GDP (last updated by Fred in 2021). The Federal Reserve may have to move more aggressively to quell an market concerns. 

I say all this to say the liquidity required for this war would surely rouse markets at the cost of the US Hegemony to some extent.

They also point to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq- and say a US attack on Iran, a nation three times as large with twice the population, would be a similarly disastrous foreign policy decision.