@yamada
How to Identify “Contrarian Indicator Influencers”
In the cryptocurrency industry, there exists a peculiar class of influencers who, with remarkable consistency, end up promoting losing projects. I refer to them as “contrarian indicator influencers.”
*Two Consecutive Years of Misses
Consider the following head-to-head matchups:
2024: Hyperliquid (winner) vs. Orderly (loser)
2025: Lighter (winner) vs. Edge X (loser)
These projects competed intensely prior to their TGEs (Token Generation Events). Yet multiple influencers consistently backed the losing side in both years. A closer look shows a pattern: the same influencers also promoted projects with limited profit potential, such as VOOI and Rango Exchange.
Why Do They Keep Recommending “Losers”?
The reason is fairly straightforward: they are paid more by these projects.
This is not a moral judgment. In the same position, most people would likely promote projects offering higher compensation. The real issue lies not with the influencers themselves, but with the strategic behavior of certain project teams.
*Characteristics of Problematic Projects
From this pattern, two inferences can be drawn.
1. Excessive Marketing Spend
Influencers who choose what to promote based primarily on incentives naturally deprioritize a project’s long-term viability. From the project side, this often signals overinvestment in marketing.
When marketing budgets balloon, they inevitably crowd out funding for development and sustainable user incentives.
2. Fragile Community Formation
Users attracted through exaggerated marketing tend to have weak attachment to the community. Once an airdrop is received, they sell immediately. This dynamic is fundamentally incompatible with building a durable ecosystem.
*Using Them as Contrarian Indicators
In an industry defined by uncertainty, even seasoned experts struggle to identify winners at an early stage. However, contrarian indicator influencers are surprisingly useful: by consistently highlighting failing projects, they effectively show us which investments to avoid.
*The Fundamental Lesson
Truly valuable information—real edge—is never shared publicly. What influencers distribute is usually information whose value has already been diluted.
My conclusion is simple:
the most reliable path to meaningful profits in crypto is to gather and verify information independently, rather than relying on influencers.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction