# Hindsight bias Bitcoin prices are currently plummeting. Social media is flooded with pessimistic comments, yet in early October, many people were optimistically declaring that "October is the strongest month." Strangely enough, Bitcoin itself hasn't changed at all. Its technology, mechanism, and supply remain the same. The only thing that has changed is the number called price. Yet our perspective shifts dramatically. This is a mental quirk called "hindsight bias." When people see results, they feel they "knew it all along." When prices rise, they say "I thought it would go up," and when they fall, "I knew this would happen." But in reality, no one was certain until that very moment. For example, it often happens that after receiving tokens through an airdrop and selling them immediately, the price subsequently skyrockets. At times like these, even I find myself thinking, "I knew from the start that project had potential. I should have known to hold onto it instead of selling." However, in reality, I had no idea about its future prospects when I received it—I sold precisely because I was uncertain. Knowing the outcome causes my uncertain judgment at the time to be replaced with "something I should have known." Another troublesome factor is "pro-cyclical psychology." When the market rises, our mood rises; when it falls, our mood sinks. And we convince ourselves that "it will keep falling like this." We fall into the illusion that recent events will continue forever. When you think about it calmly, it's strange. For instance, JPMorgan's market outlook for next year projects that risk assets will perform similarly to this year. Expert analysis doesn't say anything like "crash confirmed." Yet in moments when prices are falling, pessimistic views are spoken of as if they were the only truth. When prices fall, seeing pessimistic arguments while pausing to ask "is that really true?" When prices rise, maintaining composure amid the frenzy by thinking "wait a minute." Perhaps navigating markets successfully begins with understanding our own mental biases.
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Hyperliquid.
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Thank you, Karrier One team! I have successfully received the hotspot that I won in the lottery. I am very happy. The setup looks straightforward, so I'm looking forward to installing it right away. Since this will be installed in Japan, I may not have as many earning opportunities as other regions, but I feel honored to be able to participate in such an innovative project. I'm expecting this to be a valuable opportunity to learn about the network mechanisms and the project's potential by experiencing it firsthand. I look forward to the continued development of the project!
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