Brace yourselves, the trade war is about to hit the stores soon:
https://x.com/Logisticsexpert/status/1912638806181675301

Even if done on war footings, it will take a while to build domestic industrial capacity to replace China (supposing that is possible). There is going to be at least 2-3 year gap where any of these things would happen:
- Smuggling would go up.
- Shortage of many essential items
- Supply chain disruptions
- and ofc, inflation going up into double digits.

This will happen. There is no avoiding it and the probability of the above happening is 100%.

Now lets think about 2nd and third order effects of the above. Most people don't think that far, but you must.

China will dump everything in Africa too :p

You're ignoring the X factor. Africa 🥲

For example. With above 100% tariffs on China, China will start dumping its excess inventory in South America. From there they will start getting smuggled into USA. The higher the tariff, the more lucrative smuggling becomes.
But smugglers are usually criminals. So when criminals start making big bucks, crime goes up. I will bet you a $1000 that you will see Fentanyl rise up within the next year.
This is not conjecture, these patterns are as solid as any laws of nature.