Bitcoin's on-chain new address growth has historically correlated with market bull and bear cycles, but the relationship is evolving. Spikes in new addresses often signal bull market peaks, driven by retail FOMO, while low growth aligns with bearish phases. However, recent cycles show institutional demand via ETFs and centralized exchanges may suppress address creation, weakening the correlation. On-chain data from 2024 indicates steady but sub-peak address growth (311K daily), suggesting cautious optimism without speculative mania. While new addresses remain a useful sentiment indicator, their predictive power for cycle turns is diminishing as institutional influence grows.